(Alliance News) - The banking M&A game never sleeps. While attention remains focused on the record results of Italy's major banks, boardrooms are already looking ahead to the spring shareholder meetings, leadership renewal slates, and potential merger moves.
As Corriere della Sera highlighted on Monday, there are three open fronts. The first is in Siena, entirely within MPS. In the coming weeks, two key milestones will be set: on February 27, the new industrial plan will be unveiled, outlining Mediobanca's role in the group; and on March 5, the outgoing board's slate will be presented, a process overseen by chairman Nicola Maione in dialogue with both public and private shareholders. Among them, Caltagirone and Delfin, investment funds—led by BlackRock—and the MEF, which holds about 4%. The battle is being fought among these four camps.
The other two fronts are more fluid. The first concerns Banco BPM and Crédit Agricole's strengthening, currently at 20% and potentially rising to 30% of the capital. This strategic move could reshape the balance of power and put pressure on BPER.
While UniCredit and Intesa operate on another level and MPS, together with Mediobanca, aims to become the third national banking pole, the alliance game for Banco BPM and BPER remains wide open.
The year 2026 could be the year of the "20% lords": Hugues Brasseur of Crédit Agricole Italia and Carlo Cimbri of Unipol, both significant shareholders in Banco BPM and BPER, respectively.
After years of industrial partnerships, they now find themselves at the center of the banking M&A game.
The outcome of the Banco BPM-Agricole axis seems set, but political and industrial knots remain. Much debate was sparked by the Golden Power exercised against UniCredit when it attempted a move on Banco BPM, in contrast to the green light given to the French group's increasing stake.
Meanwhile, Banco BPM boasts robust growth: over the past five years, total shareholder return has exceeded 1,000%, with one of the best dividend yields in Europe.
Now, the focus is on board seats in the new board of directors. Meetings between Tononi and Castagna and Agricole's leadership are intensifying. With Banco BPM falling under French influence, the group's weight in Italy would increase further, sending a clear signal to BPER.
Gianni Franco Papa, CEO of BPER, successfully bet on Popolare di Sondrio in 2024, acquiring it in 2025 and increasing market capitalization to EUR24 billion—ten times what it was four years earlier. A move appreciated by Carlo Cimbri, a shareholder in both. But this may not be enough to guarantee independence, given what's happening between Banco BPM and Agricole. The time to act, once again, is now.
By Giuseppe Fabio Ciccomascolo, Alliance News senior reporter
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