The unease began with some rare honesty from Wall Street's own mandarins. The chiefs of Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs warned that markets looked ripe for a "drawdown". Their diagnosis echoed a growing suspicion that the AI rally-fuelled by circular logic, where companies spend on AI in the hope of selling AI to other companies doing the same-has detached itself from economic gravity.

Palantir Technologies, long a darling of the data-driven faithful, tumbled over 7% despite boasting of record revenue. Spooked by the prospect of a more hawkish Fed and underwhelmed by Palantir's merely decent results, when they'd been hoping for fireworks, investors are once again turning a wary eye to the valuations and incestuousness of the AI sector. Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon all lost ground too. When even good news fails to lift prices, traders start to suspect the good times have overshot their credit limit.

To be fair, America's corporate health still looks robust. Some 83% of S&P 500 firms have beaten analysts' earnings forecasts this quarter, far above the historical average. But much of that enthusiasm rests on a narrow foundation of technology firms whose valuations depend on untested business models and still-imaginary efficiencies.

However, there is a growing sense of unease on Wall Street, and markets dislike uncertainty. Nevertheless, Washington seems determined to supply it in bulk. If the shutdown stretches beyond tonight, it will set a new record, adding one more badge of dysfunction to the world's largest economy. The Treasury's lowered borrowing estimate, reflecting a larger cash pile: an ironic comfort as Congress fails to pass a budget. Local elections in New York, New Jersey and Virginia may provide a small distraction, though not much comfort.

Elsewhere, the world's commodity giants show more pragmatic restraint. OPEC+ has paused plans to raise output next quarter-an implicit admission that supply already exceeds demand. Oil prices duly softened, while gold slipped as investors debated whether the Fed's next move will indeed be a cut. 

In corporate news, results keep coming, although we're reaching the end of earnings season. BP plc managed to surprise on the upside, while Saudi Aramco posted another quarter of enormous profits. Nintendo got in on the act, lifting forecasts thanks to its new console.

This morning, Wall Street futures remained in the red: the Dow Jones slipped 0.6%, the S&P 500 fell 1%, and the Nasdaq 100 led declines with a steeper drop. However, the market's taking a breather without straying far from recent highs. The Nasdaq 100 inched up 0.4% yesterday and is once again flirting with the 26,000 mark, pulled higher by a 4% jump in Amazon. 

The day is dominated by a fresh wave of earnings: AMD, Shopify, Uber, Arista Networks, Amgen, and Pfizer. 

On the macro front, Australia's central bank held its benchmark rate at 3.60%, as expected following a fresh bout of inflationary pressure. Tighter monetary policy in several countries is sending worrying signals about the Fed's next moves. Investors are increasingly uneasy about the prospect of rate cuts in December. Futures markets reflect that concern, as does the uptick in the 10-year US yield.

The US JOLTS employment report, initially scheduled for today, won't be published due to the shutdown. 

The mood has soured somewhat in Asia-Pacific, following a recent stretch of carefree trading. Japan has given back some of yesterday's gains (-1.7%), while Hong Kong is down 0.5%. South Korea took a hard knock, with the KOSPI dropping 2.4% after regulators voiced concern over the frenzy surrounding SK Hynix, whose shares have more than tripled this year. India, Taiwan, and Australia are off by 0.4% to 0.9%. Europe is bearish.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: Japan's manufacturing PMI; in the United States, the trade balance, durable goods orders, factory orders, and JOLTS job openings. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 100,035
  • Gold: $3,981
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $63.99 (WTI) $60.11
  • United States 10 years: 4.09%
  • BITCOIN: $104,070

In corporate news:

  • Palantir beat earnings expectations, but shares fell as investors believe there is not enough to justify its stratospheric valuation
  • Merck signed a $150 million deal with Dr. Falk Pharma to acquire development and commercialization rights to MK-8690, an anti-CD30 ligand antibody.
  • Eaton missed Q3 revenue estimates due to weak vehicle and e-mobility segments but confirmed a $9.5 billion acquisition of Boyd Corporation to expand its data center business.
  • Pfizer beat Q3 estimates and raised its full-year profit outlook, driven by strong performance in its non-COVID portfolio.
  • TopBuild exceeded Q3 expectations and raised its 2025 outlook, boosted by acquisitions and commercial roofing demand.
  • Marathon Petroleum missed Q3 profit estimates despite strong refining operations and announced a 10% dividend increase.
  • Spotify beat Q3 user and revenue forecasts and expects Q4 profit and MAUs to surpass analyst expectations.
  • Gartner raised its full-year EBITDA forecast after Q3 profit beat estimates, supported by AI tools and share buybacks.
  • Waters raised its 2025 guidance after strong Q3 growth across pharma and instrument segments.
  • Ball Corporation beat Q3 revenue estimates and reaffirmed double-digit EPS growth guidance for 2025.
  • Meta's Oversight Board overturned content removals during Eating Disorder Awareness Week and called for improved enforcement planning.
  • Amazon signed a $38 billion cloud deal with OpenAI, signaling a major step forward in its AI strategy.
  • Bunge is in talks to buy a 22% stake in Brazil's Kepler Weber from Triγgono Capital.
  • Alphabet filed for a multi-part bond offering worth up to $17.5 billion.
  • Microsoft is collaborating with Lambda on AI infrastructure using Nvidia chips.
  • Tesla faces opposition from Norway's wealth fund over Elon Musk's proposed $1 trillion pay package amid operational challenges.
  • Starbucks is selling majority control of its China business to Boyu Capital in a $4 billion deal to regain growth amid rising local competition.
  • Kimberly-Clark acquired Kenvue as part of its strategic expansion.
  • Security Bancorp saw a 43% increase in net income for Q3 2025, driven by increased loan volume and higher interest rates.
  • Martin Marietta raised its 2025 profit outlook due to strong infrastructure demand despite missing Q3 revenue estimates.
  • Prelude Therapeutics signed an exclusive deal with Incyte, receiving $35 million upfront and potential future payments of up to $775 million for cancer drug development.
  • Marriott raised its full-year guidance after Q3 results beat expectations, helped by strong luxury hotel demand.
  • Zoetis cut its annual revenue outlook on softer demand for pet treatments, despite beating quarterly profit estimates.
  • Exelon posted higher Q3 earnings on increased electricity rates and reaffirmed its 2025 guidance.
  • Global Payments beat Q3 estimates on strong performance from its merchant solutions unit and reaffirmed its full-year forecast.
  • Broadridge Financial more than doubled its quarterly profit thanks to strong growth in its investor communications business.
  • Uber beat Q3 revenue expectations and projected strong holiday demand, supported by its Uber One membership program.
  • Shopify forecast strong Q4 revenue growth amid robust holiday season demand despite tariff pressures.
  • Stanley Black & Decker lowered its full-year profit forecast due to higher production costs but beat Q3 profit estimates.
  • Philip Morris International announced a new organizational model and reporting segments as it pushes toward a smoke-free future.
  • MPLX and Mara Holdings partnered to build integrated power and data center campuses in West Texas.
  • Apollo Global Management beat Q3 profit forecasts with strong earnings from asset growth and debt origination.
  • Brown & Brown's Wright Flood completed the acquisition of Poulton Associates.
  • Goldman Sachs CEO met with China's Vice Premier, signaling continued investment interest in China.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Apple Inc.: DZ Bank AG Research upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from USD 230 to USD 300.
  • Avantor, Inc.: Raymond James downgrades to market perform from outperform.
  • Bruker Corporation: Nephron Research LLC upgrades to hold from sell with a price target raised from USD 28 to USD 36.
  • Caesars Entertainment, Inc.: Jefferies downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 39 to USD 22.
  • Chemed Corporation: Zacks upgrades to neutral from underperform with a price target raised from USD 413 to USD 457.
  • Comcast Corporation: BNP Paribas upgrades to neutral from underperform and reduces the target price from USD 32 to USD 28.
  • Crocs, Inc.: Zacks upgrades to neutral from underperform with a price target raised from USD 72 to USD 87.
  • Cyberark Software Ltd.: Citi downgrades to neutral from buy and raises the target price from USD 465 to USD 524.
  • Eli Lilly And Company: William O'Neil & Co Incorporated initiates coverage with a buy recommendation.
  • Inspire Medical Systems, Inc.: Wells Fargo upgrades to overweight from equalweight and reduces the target price from USD 101 to USD 90.
  • Qorvo, Inc.: JP Morgan upgrades to neutral from underweight and raises the target price from USD 92 to USD 105.
  • Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.: Texas Capital upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 348 to USD 450.
  • Abercrombie & Fitch Co.: Citi maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 105 to USD 79.
  • Amazon.com, Inc.: CITIC Securities Co Ltd maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 240 to USD 300.
  • Cardinal Health, Inc.: Mizuho Securities maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 170 to USD 210.
  • Centene Corporation: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 30 to USD 38.
  • Charter Communications, Inc.: BNP Paribas maintains its underperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 255 to USD 200.
  • Crispr Therapeutics Ag: Evercore ISI maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 99 to USD 62.
  • Exact Sciences Corporation: Baird maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 72 to USD 88.
  • First Solar, Inc.: Seaport Global maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 217 to USD 305.
  • Grab Holdings Limited: Huatai Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 5.30 to USD 6.70.
  • Incyte Corporation: Piper Sandler & Co maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 82 to USD 102.
  • Lattice Semiconductor Corporation: Baird maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 60 to USD 75.
  • Mongodb, Inc.: Rosenblatt Securities Inc. maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 305 to USD 385.
  • On Holding Ag: Jefferies maintains its underperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 40 to USD 31.
  • Palantir Technologies Inc.: Cantor Fitzgerald maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 155 to USD 198.
  • Paramount Skydance Corporation: JP Morgan maintains its underweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 10 to USD 14.
  • Twilio Inc.: Zacks maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 118 to USD 142.