Market sentiment seem all over the place. Monday's rally, driven by artificial-intelligence optimism and a respite in regional-bank anxiety, lifted all major indexes by over 1%. Four days ago, panic ruled. Fears of credit stress in regional banks, persistent inflation, and geopolitical jitters had investors clutching for safe havens. Then, over the weekend, sentiment seemed to have undergone something like a collective hypnosis. The risk-on mood returned, helped by soothing noises from Washington and Beijing.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett predicted that the government shutdown might soon end: a welcome development, though "soon" in Washington has been known to mean many things. Meanwhile, President Trump adopted an uncharacteristically conciliatory tone toward China, expressing confidence in reaching a "fair deal" with President Xi Jinping. Markets, ever eager to find the silver lining, took the remarks as reason enough to buy again.

The optimism extended across the Pacific. Asian markets continued their advance, led by South Korea's Kospi and China's tech-heavy ChiNext index. European stocks followed suit, if only modestly. Bond yields in both the U.S. and the eurozone edged lower as geopolitical worries cooled, while the dollar strengthened, its rise described by some traders as a "relief rally." Gold slipped from its record highs, though at more than $4,200 a troy ounce, hardly anyone is short of reasons to hold it.

Oil prices, however, remain stubbornly subdued. Despite a small uptick, crude still trades near $61 a barrel as evidence of a global supply surplus mounts.

Earnings season is often a spectacle of selective storytelling. Companies trumpet "adjusted" profits that omit whatever proved inconvenient that quarter, while analysts scramble to reframe forecasts as "encouraging" even when they are not. Yet this week's results carry more weight than usual. Investors are not only measuring whether firms beat expectations but also whether they can sustain profit margins in an economy still feeling the aftertaste of inflation.

Some early results hint at resilience. Health insurers are performing well: Elevance's solid report lifted UnitedHealth and Humana in premarket trading. General Motors raised its annual forecast on hopes of tariff relief, while Coca-Cola posted steady soda demand.  But there are warning signs too: Northrop Grumman trimmed its sales outlook, and regional banks remain under scrutiny for signs of hidden strain.

On the macro agenda, there is still not much coming out of the United States, apart from a speech by central banker Christopher Waller. ECB President Christine Lagarde will also take the podium. 

In Asia-Pacific, the markets have no intention of falling. Japan and Australia are up 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively. South Korea and Taiwan are up 0.2%, while mainland China and Hong Kong are up 1% or more. India is content with a 0.5% increase. European leading indicators are mostly up.

Today's economic highlights:

Today: the real export figures in Switzerland will be released. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 98,940
  • Gold: $4,222
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $61.39 (WTI) $57.44
  • United States 10 years: 3.97%
  • BITCOIN: $109,130

In corporate news:

  • Philip Morris raised its 2025 adjusted EPS forecast to $7.46–$7.56 after strong Q3 growth driven by smokeless products, with EPS up 17.3% and revenue up 9.4%.
  • Eos Energy and Talen Energy announced a strategic collaboration to develop multiple energy storage projects supporting AI infrastructure in Pennsylvania.
  • Galp is in advanced talks to sell a 40% stake in its Namibian Mopane field and plans to choose a partner by year-end to speed up development.
  • Mastercard will invest €250 million in three French data centers and launch new programs to support European SMEs and startups.
  • 3M Company raised its 2025 profit and margin forecasts following a strong Q3, highlighting improved operational performance and EPS of $2.19.
  • Halliburton beat adjusted Q3 profit expectations with $0.58 EPS despite a 2% revenue decline, driven by stable North American activity and cost-saving efforts.
  • Lockheed Martin won a $233 million contract to provide IRST21 Block II infrared systems to the U.S. Air Force and Air National Guard.
  • Coca-Cola reported a 6% rise in Q3 EPS and 5% revenue growth, driven by strong pricing and organic sales across key global markets.
  • Equifax posted higher Q3 profit and revenue as demand for credit and income verification services rose with increased lending activity.
  • Lockheed Martin raised its full-year EPS forecast to $22.15–$22.35 on strong Q3 results and robust demand across most business segments.
  • General Motors raised its full-year profit outlook despite a 56.6% Q3 net income drop, citing lower-than-expected tariff impact and resilient U.S. car sales.
  • RTX boosted its 2025 guidance as strong demand in its defense and aerospace units offset ongoing tariff pressures, with Q3 revenue up 12%.
  • Genuine Parts cut its full-year EPS forecast due to restructuring costs and weak demand but raised its revenue outlook on higher sales.
  • Atlassian completed its acquisition of The Browser Company of New York.
  • PACCAR beat Q3 revenue estimates at $6.67 billion, supported by strong performance in parts and financial services.
  • Elevance Health beat Q3 profit expectations with adjusted EPS of $6.03 as it kept medical costs in check, reaffirming its 2025 outlook.
  • GE Aerospace raised its 2025 EPS forecast to $6.00–$6.20 after strong Q3 results driven by demand for commercial engines and services.
  • Accenture and AWS expanded their collaboration to accelerate AI and cloud modernization for public service organizations.
  • Quest Diagnostics lifted its 2025 profit and revenue forecasts after Q3 earnings beat expectations on strong diagnostic test demand.
  • Mueller Industries reported a Q3 sales rise on higher selling prices, despite pressure from residential softness and import influx.
  • Pentair beat Q3 estimates and raised its annual guidance, supported by strong demand in industrial and pool segments.
  • Northrop Grumman raised its full-year profit forecast but trimmed sales guidance amid continued defense demand and supply chain constraints.
  • CenterPoint Energy is selling its Ohio natural gas unit to National Fuel Gas for $2.62 billion to focus on regulated operations in other states.
  • Danaher beat Q3 profit and revenue expectations on resilient demand for diagnostics and bioprocessing, reaffirming full-year EPS guidance.
  • Shawbrook is targeting a November IPO in London with a potential valuation of up to £2 billion to support its growth plans in digital banking.
  • Coinbase acquired Echo, an on-chain capital-raising platform, for approximately $375 million to expand its crypto finance capabilities.
  • KKR and Quadrantis Capital will acquire minority stakes in Peak Re, as Prudential Financial exits its position in the reinsurer.
  • ASE Technology and Analog Devices announced a strategic collaboration, including the acquisition of ADI's Malaysian facility to boost supply chain resilience.
  • Goldman Sachs launched an onshore private wealth management team in Saudi Arabia to expand its regional footprint.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Apple Inc.: Phillip Securities downgrades to reduce from neutral with a target price of USD 200. 
  • Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.: Wells Fargo downgrades to underweight from equalweight with a target price of USD 11.
  • Nextracker Inc.: Citi upgrades to buy from neutral and raises the target price from USD 66 to USD 114.
  • Nuscale Power Corporation: Citi downgrades to sell from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 46 to USD 37.50.
  • Rivian Automotive, Inc.: Mizuho Securities downgrades to underperform from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 14 to USD 10.
  • Royal Gold, Inc.: BMO Capital Markets upgrades to outperform from restricted with a target price of USD 240.
  • Texas Instruments Incorporated: Mizuho Securities downgrades to underperform from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 200 to USD 150.
  • The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.: JP Morgan downgrades to neutral from overweight and raises the target price from USD 625 to USD 750.
  • Alphabet Inc.: BNP Paribas Exane maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 187 to USD 247.
  • Bunge Global Sa: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 85 to USD 105.
  • Lyft, Inc.: Bernstein maintains its market perform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 16 to USD 22.
  • Morgan Stanley: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 122 to USD 157.
  • Pure Storage, Inc.: Citi maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 81 to USD 110.
  • Summit Therapeutics Inc.: Barclays maintains its underweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 13 to USD 16.