Until recently, it was easy to complain that financial news had become a two-track affair: semiconductors and the Strait of Hormuz, the Strait of Hormuz and semiconductors. Things have hardly improved since the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding. The good news is that war is no longer front and centre for markets, and oil is back close to where it was before the crisis. The bad news is that we are now left with just one story to write about.

On Monday, equities bounced on the back of semiconductors after last week's late wobble. On Tuesday, they fell because of semiconductors, following Samsung's update, which we discussed yesterday morning. I am threatening to throw myself into Lake Annecy if Wednesday's session ends up revolving around the same theme again. But with temperatures at 35 degrees every day, that is not much of a threat.

Beyond the daily market moves, semiconductors have been losing momentum since late June. Meanwhile, the Magnificent Seven are back in the spotlight. Yesterday, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft all closed higher, while the Nasdaq fell almost 2%. Had we been told at the start of the year that mega-caps would be the place to hide from the broader market, we would not have believed it.

Semiconductors nevertheless remain the year's big winners, with the SOX up 82% since 1 January. The hyperscalers, by contrast, have had a far choppier ride. The Roundhill Mag 7 index is barely flat for 2026. It is a rare bout of underperformance for the group, and has prompted some investors to call them the "Lag7" rather than the Mag7. June threw the divergence into even sharper relief, with Microsoft down 17% while Micron gained 19%.

Over recent months, hyperscalers have kept lifting their capital expenditure guidance, and the market has lost patience. Investors have also worked out that someone has to foot the bill for Micron's 85% gross margin. That means Apple having to raise iPhone prices and Microsoft putting up Xbox prices.

There are no major economic releases on today's agenda. Investors are waiting for the Fed minutes at 8pm and Costco's results after the Wall Street close.

That will leave time to follow the second day of the NATO summit in Turkey. Yesterday, Donald Trump met President Erdogan and signalled that he was open to Turkey returning to the F-35 fighter jet programme. He was less generous towards the Europeans, whom he continues to accuse of failing to back him during the war with Iran.

A large number of contracts were also announced, though they did little to move the relevant shares. Defence stocks, particularly in Europe, had already rallied strongly ahead of the Ankara summit. Last year, in The Hague, NATO members pledged to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP. This year, the priority is to scale up weapons production.

Elsewhere in the news:

  • The United States has revoked the temporary authorisation allowing Iran to sell its oil, and has carried out a fresh round of strikes in response to attacks on several oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The Revolutionary Guards responded this morning by targeting US military sites in Bahrain and Kuwait.
  • In France, Marine Le Pen announced last night that she will run in the presidential election, and that she will appeal to the Court of Cassation after her conviction was upheld on appeal.
  • Nigel Farage has resigned as an MP, triggering a by-election in his constituency.

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

  • GBP / USD: 1.336
  • Gold: 4,129.17
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): 76.71
  • United States 10 years: 4.55%
  • BITCOIN: 62,539.4

In corporate news:

  • GSK has signed a marketing agreement for respiratory therapies with a subsidiary of Sino Biopharmaceutical.
  • HSBC is reviewing its retail banking and corporate finance operations in Turkey to focus on international business.
  • AstraZeneca has signed an exclusive licensing agreement in China for an experimental treatment for COPD, with an initial payment of 200 MUSD.
  • Santander has dropped its lead banker in China and is cutting employee benefits across Asia, according to the FT.
  • A shareholder in Energy Resources of Australia is challenging Rio Tinto’s compulsory takeover in court.
  • UniCredit is set to announce the results of its public offer for Commerzbank, having acquired a stake of nearly 60 per cent.
  • The European Commission has authorised the takeover of Beazley by Zurich Insurance.
  • InsuranceDekko’s parent company has appointed several banks for a planned initial public offering worth 400 MUSD.
  • TechnipFMC has secured several offshore contracts from Equinor for projects in Norway.
  • OpenAI announces the public launch on Thursday of its new AI model, GPT-5.6.
  • Netflix signs agreements with media companies to stream their videos.
  • T-Mobile US appoints a new head of its Enterprise division.
  • BlackRock and Stonepeak are considering the acquisition of a Brazilian port valued at $5 billion.
  • Prologis and NBIM Nerva have received the green light from the European Commission to acquire a logistics asset in Germany.
  • Lockheed Martin has secured contracts worth $607.4 million from the US Department of Defence.
  • Enterprise Products Partners has raised its quarterly distribution to $0.56 per unit from $0.55, payable on 14 August.
  • The IPO of SK Hynix on the Nasdaq has been oversubscribed several times over.
  • Workers at BHP have voted to strike on 16 and 18 July at its sites in Western Australia, including Port Hedland.

Today’s key earnings releases: Costco Wholesale, Unite, Pennon

See more news from UK listed companies here

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Ibstock Plc: Rothschild & Co Redburn maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 124 to GBX 97.
  • Integrafin Holdings Plc: RBC Capital maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from GBX 450 to GBX 500.
  • Aj Bell Plc: RBC Capital maintains its sector perform recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 550 to GBX 600.
  • St. James's Place Plc: RBC Capital maintains its sector perform recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 1400 to GBX 1500.
  • Quilter Plc: RBC Capital maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from GBX 225 to GBX 235.
  • Intercontinental Hotels Group Plc: Morgan Stanley maintains its equalwt recommendation and raises the target price from USD 150 to USD 162.
  • Sage Group Plc: Oddo BHF maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from GBP 12.50 to GBP 11.80.
  • Easyjet Plc: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 5.70 to GBP 6.90.
  • Wizz Air Holdings Plc: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 11.50 to GBP 14.50.
  • Man Group Plc: UBS downgrades to neutral from buy and raises the target price from GBX 290 to GBX 320.
  • Shell Plc: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 122.40 to USD 120.60.
  • Standard Chartered Plc: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from HKD 221 to HKD 250.