Trump softened his tone, ruled out taking Greenland by force, and refrained from flipping tables at Davos. The relief rally followed. Commentators dusted off an old favorite theory, the so-called TACO Trade: Trump Always Chickens Out. He blusters, markets panic, and then - often - he backs down.

But if this week showed anything, it's that backing down does not mean backing away. The tension hasn't disappeared, it's just changed shape. Equities tried to look past the noise. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rebounded for two sessions, even as both remained on track for a second straight weekly decline. Beneath the surface, the market sent mixed signals. Bond yields stayed stubborn. The dollar slid. Gold surged to record highs, flirting with milestones investors used to talk about only half-jokingly. Silver nearly touched $100 an ounce for the first time. Fear of missing out - FOMO, now officially a macroeconomic driver - did the rest.

Gold is up about 14% this year. Silver is up roughly 38%. These are not the moves of a market feeling fully at ease.

Part of that anxiety comes from geopolitics. Even after Trump eased off Greenland, serious questions linger about U.S.–Europe relations. Investors are still hedging against unpredictability, Trump's favorite export.

Then there's the economy, which refuses to send a clean signal. Recent U.S. data has been better than expected. Business activity surveys and consumer sentiment are in focus. Bond yields have drifted lower as fears ease. Markets have now priced out rate cuts in January, March, and April. The first cut investors seriously expect is June 17, likely the first meeting of the post-Powell era, chaired by a Fed leader chosen by Trump.

The Federal Reserve, for its part, is expected to hold rates at 3.5%–3.75% next week. Every word of the statement will be dissected. Independence of the Fed - a concept once taken for granted-now sits uncomfortably alongside political pressure and public criticism.

If geopolitics set the mood, earnings set the tone. And the tone has been… uneven.

This earnings season has not been kind to hype. Netflix, Intel, Abbott, and several banks disappointed. Intel, in particular, became the week's cautionary tale. After a long stretch in the wilderness, the stock had surged - about 150% over the past year - on a compelling comeback story powered by artificial intelligence. That narrative proved fragile. Intel forecast weaker-than-expected revenue and profit, citing difficulties meeting demand for server chips used in AI data centers. Shares dropped more than 10% after hours and slid around 12% in premarket trading.

Loyalists quickly argued the problem wasn't demand, but supply constraints. Perhaps. Still, as one tech outlet dryly noted, Intel now trades at a higher valuation than Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, a firm known for pristine execution. That discrepancy likely has less to do with spreadsheets and more to do with flags.

The tech sector absorbed the hit, even as Nvidia rose after reports that Chinese officials told Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance they could prepare orders for Nvidia's H200 AI chips. Next week's earnings from Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, and other "Magnificent Seven" companies will test whether sky-high valuations still have fuel - or whether gravity is quietly clocking in.

Outside tech, the picture is equally mixed. Market gains have broadened, helped by a strong U.S. economy and hopes for eventual rate cuts. The Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Transports recently touched record highs. Intuitive Surgical climbed after beating expectations on demand for surgical robots. SLB edged up after a profit beat. 

Deals kept coming. Capital One agreed to buy Brex for $5.15 billion, sending its shares lower. Clorox announced a $2.25 billion purchase of Purell-maker Gojo, funded with debt, betting that hand sanitizer still has a future beyond emergencies. 

Oil prices rose as investors watched Iran closely, even as tentative progress toward talks between Russia and Ukraine nudged prices down at times. Venezuela unveiled a bill aimed at loosening state control of its oil industry, after U.S. commandos removed Nicolás Maduro earlier this month.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan held rates steady at 0.75% while raising growth and inflation forecasts, leaving the door open to future hikes. China's central bank fixed the yuan below 7 per dollar for the first time since 2023, a move that very smart people insist is worth watching. Markets in Japan, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and Australia ended the week modestly higher; India lagged. European indices are mixed and so are futures on Wall Street.

Today's economic highlights:

Today's agenda includes: in the United Kingdom, Gfk consumer confidence and retail sales; in Japan, manufacturing and services PMIs followed by the BoJ interest rate decision and quarterly outlook report; in France, business confidence and manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs; in Germany, manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs; in the Euro Area, manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs followed by ECB President Christine Lagarde's speech; in China, FDI year-to-date; in Canada, retail sales; in the United States, manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs followed by the final Michigan consumer sentiment index. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 98,374
  • Gold: $4,924
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $64.64 (WTI) $60.16
  • United States 10 years: 4.24%
  • BITCOIN: $89,017

In corporate news:

  • Czechoslovak Group (CSG) soared 32% on its Amsterdam IPO debut, reaching a €31.6 billion valuation, marking the largest European defence listing since 2006 amid booming military spending.
  • Forge Global shareholders approved the company's acquisition by Charles Schwab, with the deal expected to close in the first half of 2026 pending regulatory approval.
  • Netflix Co-CEO Greg Peters said the company is likely to secure Warner Bros. Discovery shareholder support for its $82.7 billion cash offer, countering Paramount Skydance's higher but debt-funded bid.
  • Pegatron, a supplier to Apple, plans to complete its first U.S. factory in Texas by March, producing AI servers using Nvidia chips, amid broader Taiwanese tech investment in the U.S.
  • FedEx will cut up to 500 jobs in France and invest €78 million to streamline its domestic operations, potentially creating over 770 new roles.
  • ContourGlobal, owned by KKR, entered the Greek renewables market with acquisitions of solar and battery storage assets, aiming to expand its role in energy storage.
  • Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang plans a visit to China to address logistical challenges and meet potential buyers amid restrictions on AI chip exports.
  • Seco and Boeing received final design certification for their deck control device project for the U.S. Navy's MQ-25A unmanned aerial refueling platform.
  • Google, via Alphabet, invested in Japan's Sakana AI to promote its Gemini AI model in Japan's corporate sector, aiming to close the gap with local rivals.
  • Amazon.com is preparing another round of layoffs, potentially cutting about 30,000 corporate jobs across units including AWS, retail, Prime Video, and HR.
  • JPMorgan expands its presence in the UK pensions technology sector by acquiring WealthOS.
  • Shell is considering selling its stake in the Vaca Muerta shale play in Argentina.
  • Rolex is expanding its luxury watch retail presence in the US through acquisition.
  • Tesla is set to potentially receive regulatory approval for its Full Self-Driving system in Europe and China to bolster software revenue amid slowing vehicle sales.
  • Intel shares declined due to a weak outlook caused by supply shortages, despite strong demand.
  • Capital One reports its December 2025 net charge-off rates for domestic credit cards and auto loans, along with 30-plus-day delinquency rates.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Amgen Inc.: Bernstein downgrades to market perform from outperform with a target price of USD 335.
  • Applied Materials, Inc.: Deutsche Bank upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 275 to USD 390.
  • Confluent, Inc.: Bernstein downgrades to market perform from outperform with a target price of USD 31.
  • Darden Restaurants, Inc.: Mizuho Securities upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from USD 195 to USD 235.
  • Freeport-Mcmoran Inc.: Bernstein downgrades to market perform from outperform and raises the target price from USD 53.50 to USD 54.
  • Procter & Gamble Company: DBS Bank upgrades to buy from hold with a price target raised from USD 164 to USD 167.
  • Rli Corp.: Jefferies upgrades to hold from underperform with a target price of USD 52.
  • Spotify Technology S.a.: Goldman Sachs upgrades to buy from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 735 to USD 700.
  • The Sherwin-Williams Company: Deutsche Bank downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 390 to USD 380.
  • C.h. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.: UBS maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 177 to USD 224.
  • Duolingo, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 220 to USD 166.
  • Halliburton Company: Griffin Securities maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 24 to USD 35.
  • Intel Corporation: Baird maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 40 to USD 50.
  • Kla Corporation: Berenberg maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 1460 to USD 1760.
  • Lam Research Corporation: Berenberg maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 165 to USD 250.
  • Lumentum Holdings Inc.: Citi maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 240 to USD 450.
  • Micron Technology, Inc.: HSBC maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 350 to USD 500.
  • Moderna, Inc.: Berenberg maintains its hold recommendation and raises the target price from USD 26 to USD 32.
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: DBS Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 720 to USD 910.
  • Servicenow, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 1150 to USD 175.