Thursday's session is off to a cautious start. Stock futures slipped after three straight days of gains, with tech giants like Apple, Nvidia, and Meta pulling back in early trading. Walmart, the country's retail bellwether - and newly minted trillion-dollar company - didn't help the mood. Its forecast for the year came in below expectations, sending its shares lower before the opening bell. When the biggest retailer in America sounds careful, investors tend to listen.

Oil, meanwhile, is doing what oil does best in uncertain times: rising. Prices have climbed to their highest level since last summer amid mounting fears that tensions between the United States and Iran could escalate into something more serious. Reports suggest a significant U.S. military buildup in the Middle East. Satellite interference near Iran's major petrochemical hub has only added to the unease. Gold has surged back above $5,000 an ounce, a level that signals not exuberance but anxiety.

This is the uneasy backdrop for a week that also features fresh economic data. U.S. jobless claims, released today, totaled 206,000 in the week ending February 14, well below economists' expectations of 225,000. An early look at fourth-quarter GDP and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE report, are due Friday. Several Fed officials are speaking, and the message from the latest meeting minutes is clear: rates are staying put for now. Policymakers are split about what comes next. Some are open to further hikes if inflation refuses to behave. Others would consider cuts if it cools. A March rate cut looks unlikely, and markets aren't even fully pricing in two cuts this year.

In other corporate news, DoorDash and eBay have rallied on upbeat forecasts and dealmaking. Etsy jumped after selling its Depop business. Hims & Hers is buying an Australian digital-health company in a billion-dollar deal. Carvana, by contrast, fell sharply after missing profit expectations.

Different sectors are taking turns in the spotlight. The gap between the best- and worst-performing sectors over the past six weeks is unusually wide, even as the S&P 500 sits only about 2% below its high. It's unsual, because that kind of divergence usually shows up during a crisis. 

Yesterday captured that strangeness perfectly. Stocks rose, helped by tech heavyweights rebounding from earlier AI jitters. The S&P 500, the Dow, and the Nasdaq all closed higher. Yet the gains faded toward the end of the session after the Fed minutes underscored how cautious policymakers remain. Oil jumped on geopolitical fears. Gold climbed. And equities, somehow, kept advancing.

Investors appear to be holding two ideas in their heads at once: The U.S. economy is still solid, and the world is getting more complicated.

The economy has shown resilience. Industrial production has surprised to the upside. Business investment remains steady. Housing demand hasn't collapsed. These data points challenge the notion that monetary policy is choking off growth. At the same time, inflation risks haven't vanished, which keeps the Fed wary.

Layer on geopolitics, and the picture grows more fragile. A broader U.S. strike on Iran would carry far greater consequences than prior limited actions. The most obvious market risk is the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a third of global oil supplies pass. Even the hint of disruption there can rattle energy markets.

There is also the political dimension. Americans, including many who supported Donald Trump in 2024, have shown little appetite for prolonged foreign entanglements. A major escalation abroad could clash with voters' preference for a focus on domestic issues. Markets may not trade on political philosophy, but they do trade on uncertainty.

For now, the market's posture is cautious optimism. Stocks have risen for three days. Futures are down modestly. Oil is up. Gold is glittering again. The Fed is watching. So are investors.

Today's economic highlights:

Today's agenda includes: full-time employment change, unemployment rate, and employment change in Australia; balance of trade and industrial production in Switzerland; balance of trade in Spain; CBI industrial trends orders in the United Kingdom; in the United States, Fed speeches by Bostic, Bowman, and Kashkari, initial jobless claims, goods trade balance, imports, wholesale inventories, trade balance, retail inventories excluding autos, exports, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, pending home sales, and EIA crude oil and gasoline stocks; in Canada, new housing price index and trade balance; consumer confidence in the Euro Area; in Australia, S&P Global services and manufacturing PMIs. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 97,937
  • Gold: $4,984
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $70.52 (WTI) $66.05
  • United States 10 years: 4.1%
  • BITCOIN: $67,400

In corporate news:

  • Walmart reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.74, raised its annual dividend to $0.99 per share for a 53rd consecutive year, authorized a new $30 billion buyback, but issued a cautious 2026 outlook amid stretched lower-income consumers despite resilient spending and market-share gains among higher earners.
  • ATI announced a multi-year $500 million share repurchase program.
  • Thesis Gold secured a C$44 million strategic investment led by AngloGold Ashanti, which will acquire a 5% stake, with participation from Centerra Gold.
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals received FDA priority review for garetosmab to treat fibrodysplasia ossificans progressiva, with a decision expected by August 2026.
  • Insmed reported quarterly results and said it expects 2026 brinsupri revenue to exceed $1 billion while reiterating arikayce guidance of $450–$470 million.
  • Deere posted lower quarterly profit due to tariffs but beat estimates, raised its full-year net income forecast to $4.5–$5 billion, and cited recovering construction and small agriculture demand.
  • UL Solutions reported strong Q4 and full-year 2025 results, forecast mid-single-digit organic revenue growth for 2026, and increased its quarterly dividend.
  • Loblaw announced a collaboration with Google to roll out AI-powered shopping features across Google Search and Gemini.
  • DoorDash forecast first-quarter gross order value above estimates, driving shares higher despite signaling increased investment spending.
  • eBay forecast upbeat first-quarter revenue and agreed to acquire Depop from Etsy for about $1.2 billion to expand in secondhand fashion.
  • Quanta Services projected 2026 profit above estimates on strong AI-driven data center demand and posted quarterly results that beat expectations.
  • CenterPoint Energy reported higher Q4 profit and raised its 10-year capital plan to $65.5 billion to support rising power demand.
  • Lithium Americas guided 2026 capex for Thacker Pass phase 1 at $1.3–$1.6 billion and maintained its target for mechanical completion in late 2027.
  • Occidental Petroleum launched cash tender offers and consent solicitations for certain senior notes and debentures.
  • Targa Resources beat quarterly core profit estimates on higher natural gas and NGL volumes and forecast 2026 EBITDA in line with expectations.
  • Moody's established a regional headquarters in Riyadh to expand its presence in Saudi Arabia.
  • Carvana shares fell sharply after missing quarterly profit estimates due to higher vehicle reconditioning and depreciation costs.
  • Reliance Industries and Adani Group unveiled plans to invest $110 billion and $100 billion respectively to build AI and data center infrastructure in India.
  • CRH reported higher annual revenue and profit, raised its dividend, continued buybacks, and is considering delisting from London while maintaining its New York listing.
  • Quantum Systems is preparing for a potential IPO by early 2027 and has reportedly mandated Morgan Stanley to raise €400–€600 million in fresh funding.
  • Bartronics India denied launching a 500 MW data center and refuted reports of a collaboration with OpenAI.
  • Google and Sea expanded their partnership to develop agentic AI tools for Shopee and Garena across e-commerce and gaming.
  • Starbucks faced pressure from an investor group urging shareholders to vote against two directors over the company's handling of labor relations.
  • Three multinationals, reportedly including Apple, Microsoft, and Eli Lilly, accounted for 46% of Ireland's corporate tax receipts in 2024, highlighting revenue concentration risks.
  • Google's Gemini app now features its advanced music-generation model, Lyria 3.
  • Meta Platforms revives its smartwatch initiative, targeting a 2026 release.
  • Microsoft and CrowdStrike launch the Falcon platform on Microsoft Marketplace.
  • Verizon announces the offering of £600 million in 5.7427% fixed-to-fixed rate junior subordinated notes due in 2056.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Chewy: Raymond James upgrades to outperform from market perform with a target price of USD 28.
  • Garmin Ltd.: Morgan Stanley upgrades to market weight from underweight with a price target raised from USD 195 to USD 252.
  • Hf Sinclair Corporation: Scotiabank downgrades to sector perform from sector outperform and reduces the target price from USD 62 to USD 53.
  • Symbotic Inc.: KeyBanc Capital Markets upgrades to overweight from market weight with a target price of USD 70.
  • T-Mobile Us, Inc.: Daiwa Securities upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from USD 230 to USD 240.
  • Verizon Communications, Inc.: Daiwa Securities upgrades to buy from outperform with a price target raised from USD 48 to USD 58.
  • Analog Devices, Inc.: Baird maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 275 to USD 365.
  • Booking Holdings Inc.: Cantor Fitzgerald maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 5830 to USD 4495.
  • Celanese Corporation: Baird maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 50 to USD 65.
  • Elastic N.v.: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 110 to USD 80.
  • Flowserve Corporation: TD Cowen maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 80 to USD 100.
  • Garmin Ltd.: Morgan Stanley upgrades to market weight from underweight with a price target raised from USD 195 to USD 252.
  • Intuit Inc.: Mizuho Securities maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 875 to USD 675.
  • Mks Inc.: Citi maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 185 to USD 295.
  • Palo Alto Networks, Inc.: HSBC maintains its reduce recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 157 to USD 114.
  • Sonoco Products Company: Citi maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 52 to USD 70.
  • Verizon Communications, Inc.: Daiwa Securities upgrades to buy from outperform with a price target raised from USD 48 to USD 58.
  • Zscaler, Inc.: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 350 to USD 220.