Investors have learned to thrive on disorder. Rates are uncertain, politics is loud, oil is jumpy and data is muddy: yet asset prices keep inching higher.

America's economy currently sends mixed signals with admirable consistency. the latest one being yesterday's jobs report hinted at a cooling labor market, but not enough to settle anything. The S&P 500 promptly dipped to a three-week low, then steadied itself. The widely awaited figures, as so often, painted a mixed picture. Rather than clarifying the economic trajectory, they prolonged the uncertainty. On the one hand, unemployment hit its highest level since 2021. On the other, job creation was slightly more robust than forecast

The Federal Reserve sits at the center of this strategic uncertainty. Investors are waiting for fresh words from officials such as Christopher Waller and John Williams, hoping for "clarity". They will probably be disappointed. Markets still expect two modest rate cuts next year, starting around June: just after a new Fed chair is likely to be installed.

Kevin Hassett, a strong candidate favored by Donald Trump, is a White House economic adviser and an enthusiastic supporter of lower rates. However, he's said to face resistance from both Donald Trump's inner circle and Wall Street grandees like Jamie Dimon and Ken Griffin. In an interview published Friday by the Wall Street Journal, Donald Trump sought to sow uncertainty by introducing another contender for the Fed's top job: Kevin Warsh. He has experience as a Fed governor, and is supporter by Dimon.

Inflation data due on Thursday may stir things up, but the broader picture is calm-ish. The dollar has recovered from a ten-week low. Treasury yields are rising gently. The yield curve keeps steepening, largely ignoring the latest jobs wobble.

Wall Street is heading for a third straight year of gains, powered by rate-cut dreams and unrelenting enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. However, a rotation has started: valuation worries are nudging investors away from megacap tech and into small caps, banks and healthcare - places where numbers still resemble reality.

In corporate news, Warner Bros Discovery has rebuffed a $108bn hostile bid from Paramount Skydance, preferring Netflix's offer instead. Netflix shares rose, the others sulked. Amazon is reportedly considering a $10bn investment in OpenAI, because in 2025 no week is complete without a large AI cheque.

Elsewhere, Medline pulled off the biggest IPO of the year at $6.3bn. Tesla hit a record valuation above $1.6trn, just as regulators told it to stop exaggerating its cars' autonomy.

As I mentioned, November's US inflation data is due tomorrow. It's expected to show a 3% year-on-year rise in both headline and core CPI. This will be the first fresh inflation reading in weeks, following delays caused by shutdown-related turmoil, and is seen as crucial for rate expectations. Before that, Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver a key televised address this evening, likely centered on the economic outlook. Under pressure even within his own party over the imbalances caused by his policies, the President is seeking to reassert control of the narrative. He has already deployed his most loyal messengers to spread the good word: forgoing short-term gratification in exchange for longer-term prosperity. It's a politically awkward pitch for a man more associated with instant results.

On the corporate front, the AI sphere is hoping that Micron's results, due after the close, will rekindle enthusiasm. Recent updates from the sector.

The tentative calm observed on Wall Street yesterday is offering some support to Asia-Pacific markets, although several stock markets are treading water. That is the case in India, Australia and Taiwan. Japan is showing a touch more optimism (+0.3% for the Nikkei 225), while China and South Korea are attempting more assertive rallies, buoyed by gains in their tech sectors. European indices are mixed, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.3%, boosted by the FTSE 100. Futures on Wall Street are up by about 0.2%.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: in Japan, the adjusted trade balance; in the United Kingdom, the CPI GM and the HICP GA; in Germany, the IFO business climate, the IFO current assessment, and the IFO expectations; in the eurozone, the CPI GM, the CPI GA, and the labor costs GA; in the United States, the retail sales advances GM, the business inventories, and the DOE crude oil inventories. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 98,513
  • Gold: $4,315
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $60.30 (WTI) $56.50
  • United States 10 years: 4.16%
  • BITCOIN: $86,691

In corporate news:

  • American Airlines is shifting to a luxury-focused strategy with premium cabin upgrades, new aircraft, and loyalty perks to close profitability and service gaps with Delta and United.
  • Tesla has opened its first charging station in Gurugram, marking its official charging infrastructure entry into India.
  • Coupang CEO Bom Kim faces legal action in South Korea after skipping a parliamentary hearing on a major data breach that exposed information of over 33 million users.
  • Warner Bros Discovery is expected to reject Paramount's $108.4 billion buyout offer and support a competing bid from Netflix instead.
  • Ford has canceled a $6.5 billion EV battery deal with LG Energy Solution amid policy shifts and weaker electric vehicle demand.
  • MetaX surged 700% on its Shanghai IPO debut as investors bet on Chinese AI chipmakers amid government support for tech self-sufficiency.
  • Warburg Pincus will invest in Hong Kong-based Acclime, valuing the corporate services firm at up to $1 billion to support its global expansion.
  • Amazon is in talks to invest around $10 billion in OpenAI, potentially using its Trainium chips and expanding AI collaboration despite Microsoft's existing stake.
  • Trump has ordered a "total and complete blockade" of all sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela, raising legal concerns and pushing oil prices up over 1%.
  • Equus Energy will begin trading on the ASX, backed by a funding and gas sales agreement with Alcoa worth up to $30 million.
  • Tesla has 90 days to change its Autopilot marketing in California to avoid a sales suspension after being found to have misled consumers.
  • Mizuho Securities will acquire a majority stake in India's Avendus from KKR for up to $523 million, expanding its presence in Indian financial services.
  • Robinhood has expanded its prediction market platform to include bets on individual player performances, pushing further into sports betting.
  • Blackstone is leading a $400 million investment in cybersecurity firm Cyera, valuing it at $9 billion amid rising demand for AI-driven security.
  • Apple is in talks with Indian chipmakers like CG Semi to start iPhone chip packaging and assembly in India, accelerating its local manufacturing plans.
  • The U.S. Air Force will buy two Boeing 747-8 aircraft for $400 million to support Air Force One training and spare parts.
  • Boeing secured a $931 million contract to extend the flight hours of Navy Super Hornets and integrate upgraded avionics.
  • Medline raised $6.3 billion in the largest IPO of 2025, ending the year on a strong note for the U.S. equity market.
  • Amazon workers at its Riverside DJT6 facility have launched a union drive with the Teamsters, citing poor working conditions.
  • Waymo seeks to raise multi-billion-dollar funding to achieve a $100 billion valuation, maintaining Alphabet's leadership in autonomous vehicles.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Airbnb, Inc.: RBC Capital upgrades to outperform from sector perform and raises the target price from USD 145 to USD 170.
  • Autozone, Inc.: Wolfe Research downgrades to peerperform from outperform. 
  • Avantor, Inc.: Jefferies downgrades to underperform from hold and reduces the target price from USD 12 to USD 9.
  • Constellation Brands, Inc.: Jefferies downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 170 to USD 154.
  • Cyberark Software Ltd.: JP Morgan upgrades to neutral from rating suspended with a target price of USD 474.
  • Essential Utilities, Inc.: Barclays downgrades to underweight from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 43 to USD 38.
  • Fortinet, Inc.: JP Morgan downgrades to underweight from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 85 to USD 75.
  • Gaming And Leisure Properties, Inc.: Mizuho Securities upgrades to outperform from neutral with a target price of USD 50.
  • Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.: Jefferies downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from USD 39 to USD 32.
  • Procter & Gamble Company: Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 156 to USD 179.
  • Pvh Corp.: Telsey Advisory Group downgrades to market perform from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 95 to USD 82.
  • Range Resources Corporation: Gerdes Energy Research LLC upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price of USD 43.
  • Texas Roadhouse, Inc.: Wells Fargo upgrades to overweight from equalweight and raises the target price from USD 170 to USD 195.
  • The Gap, Inc.: Telsey Advisory Group upgrades to outperform from market perform and raises the target price from USD 26 to USD 32.
  • Ul Solutions Inc.: Baird upgrades to outperform from neutral with a target price of USD 97.