The Russian rouble has gained 3.6% against the US dollar since the start of January, boosted by the prospect of fresh diplomatic talks over the war in Ukraine. Russian, Ukrainian and American negotiators are due to meet this week in Abu Dhabi for discussions focusing, amongst other things, on the territorial issue. This resumption of dialogue comes a month after a meeting between Vladimir Putin and US envoys at the Kremlin, and will notably include Steve Witkoff, the US special representative, and Jared Kushner, President Trump's son-in-law.

On Friday, the Russian currency was trading at around 76 roubles to the dollar, its highest level since 5 December 2025, after rising 1.3% the previous day. Despite international sanctions, dollar trading on the Russian market remains limited, while the Chinese yuan has now established itself as the main foreign currency on the Moscow Exchange. The rouble's strength is also explained by the Finance Ministry's decision this January to double sales of foreign currency from the National Wealth Fund, in order to support the currency and offset the decline in budget revenues.

The rouble fell 0.3% against the yuan on Friday, although still posts a monthly gain of 3.5%. Analysts at Alfa Investment note that the currency's recent rise partly reflects a shift in market geopolitical perceptions. Meanwhile, BCS experts say that investors remain cautious, while acknowledging that even the slightest rumor linked to the negotiations could now trigger market moves.