That's the beauty of the market narrative. For a month, we were told that the shutdown had no impact on Wall Street. And when the end of the shutdown came into view, it was cited as the main reason for the rebound in equities after a week of correction.

If we rewind the sequence, the shutdown began on October 1. Over the course of the month, the S&P 500 gained 2.3%. Indeed, the government shutdown did not prevent the Fed from cutting rates, nor did it prevent US companies from posting good results, and even less so AI players from announcing deals left, right and center.

The first week of November was negative, but the correction was limited (barely 2% for the S&P 500) and concentrated on technology stocks. This movement could be considered normal, given that the S&P 500 is up 21% over six months and valuation levels are tight.

On Monday, the prospect of an end to the shutdown brought a slightly more positive element to the narrative and stocks rebounded sharply. But the end of the shutdown seems more like a pretext than a catalyst. We are still in a market that is not falling, where all dips (even 2 or 3%) are bought back, and where the fear of missing out on the upside is a powerful driver.

Bringing economists out of the closet

Following yesterday's vote in the Senate, the House is expected to vote on the temporary funding plan on Wednesday, before it reaches Donald Trump's desk for signing. The government will then be able to reopen.

This will allow economists to once again have data on the US economy. Since October 1, only the CPI (inflation index) for September has been published. This is an essential statistic for adjusting social security benefits. That is why the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) had called back some employees.

In recent weeks, this shortage of statistics has put a spotlight on private data, such as last week's Challenger survey and the ADP private employment report. These figures usually take a back seat.

However, it should be noted that simply reopening the BLS will not instantly provide all the missing data. Several publications will be delayed, while some reports will be scrapped. For example, there should be no employment report or inflation report for October, as no data collection or analysis work was carried out during this period.

BNP Paribas estimate of the US statistics publication schedule. Source: Bloomberg

The very real consequence of this is that the Fed will have little to go on between now and its next meeting on December 9 and 10. Between now and then, there should only be the September employment report and the PCE inflation index, also for September.

All of this should leave the Fed in the dark at a time when there are risks on both sides of its mandate (deterioration of the labor market and rise in inflation).

The markets, for their part, are still expecting a rate cut in December. According to the CME's Fedwatch tool, the probability of a quarter-point reduction is 64%.