By Giulia Petroni


Here's a look at what happened in oil markets in the week of Nov. 10-14 what the focus will be in the days to come.


OVERVIEW: Oil prices are poised for a weekly gain as disruptions to Russian oil supply outweigh concerns over an oversupplied global market. In evening trading in Europe, Brent crude was $64 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate traded just above $60 a barrel. The benchmarks are set to finish the week with gains of 1.3% and 0.5%, respectively.


MACRO: While relief over the end of the U.S. government shutdown initially buoyed sentiment, concerns over high tech valuations and the possibility of the Federal Reserve pausing interest-rate cuts have resurfaced. Markets are also grappling with uncertainty from a large backlog of economic data. The interest-rate outlook remains unclear, with traders now pricing in a 50% chance of a December cut, according to the FedWatch tool.


GEOPOLITICAL RISKS: According to media reports, Ukraine launched a major drone attack on Novorossiysk, a key Black Sea port handling oil cargoes from Russia and Kazakhstan, driving oil prices higher. Meanwhile, U.S. sanctions are starting to have an impact on Russian oil exports.

"The recent strength in the oil market has been driven by refined products, with gasoline and gasoil cracks surging amid concerns about supply," ING analysts said this week.

The International Energy Agency also highlighted that sanctioned barrels are contributing significantly to the rise in oil in transit or stored on water. While Russian oil exports have largely continued unaffected, growing stockpiles suggest buyers are factoring in compliance risks and potential workarounds.

Bloomberg reported that five large Indian refiners haven't placed any orders for Russian crude for December, and that Lukoil declared force majeure at its West Qurna 2 field in Iraq in a sign that sanctions are affecting its international operations.


SUPPLY AND DEMAND: All three major forecasting agencies released their monthly oil market this week.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2026 crude oil price forecasts, citing ongoing Chinese stockpiling and expectations that U.S. sanctions will reduce Russian production. The IEA forecasts an even bigger surplus for this year and reiterated it expects a surplus of around 4 million barrels per day next year. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries instead kept its oil-demand growth forecasts unchanged, but revised its third-quarter estimates, noting that supply exceeded demand.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected last week. Commercial crude oil stocks rose by 6.4 million barrels against expectations of a 400,000-barrel build, according to the EIA.


WHAT'S AHEAD: With the longest-ever U.S. government shutdown now over, attention shifts to the timing of key data releases following a series of delays. Investors remain uncertain about the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month, with minutes from the October FOMC meeting scheduled to be released Wednesday.

In Asia, markets will closely monitor a range of economic data releases, with particular focus on key indicators from Japan, China and Australia. The People's Bank of China is set to announce the country's benchmark lending rate on Thursday.


Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

11-14-25 1243ET