On Wednesday The White House warned that key economic statistics for October, including employment and inflation figures, may never be released due to the federal shutdown, which has been going on for over six weeks. Karoline Leavitt, spokesperson for the Trump administration, described the situation as "irreversible" damage to the national statistical system, arguing that the absence of this data leaves the Federal Reserve without benchmarks at a crucial time for monetary policy.
The indicators concerned include non-farm job creation, the consumer price index, retail sales, trade, and household income and expenditure. The possibility of a simple postponement now seems to have been ruled out, according to the White House, which blames the Democrats for the situation. The administration estimates that the shutdown could cost up to two points of GDP growth in the fourth quarter.
However, several economists are putting these concerns into perspective. Goldman Sachs has raised its growth forecasts to 3.7% for the third quarter and 1.3% for the year, while judging the impact on employment data to be limited. Meanwhile, Citigroup analysts estimate that the September report could be published in the coming days, and the October report by early December. Nevertheless, the continuing uncertainty surrounding the publication of these indicators is increasing pressure on the markets and the Fed, which are already facing an unstable economic and fiscal environment.
