The first nine months of 2025 were a bumpy ride for investors. Between new tariffs and global uncertainty, the stockmarket definitely felt the jitters. The average Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, forward-looking indicator of market sentiment, spiked to an average of 19.4 in 9m 25, compared with 15 over 9m 24. This proves that investors were (significantly) more worried about price swings.
A nervous global economic environment also made it tougher for companies to raise money over the first 9 months of 2025. The Bank of Canada finally trimmed interest rates by 0.25% (to 2.5%) in September 2025 to jumpstart the economy that was begining to stall. The cut was much needed for good reasons. Canada’s GDP declined 1.6% in Q2, the biggest slump since the pandemic era, according to the Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report.
The good news? The market started to turn around in Q3 25, as investor uncertainty eased slightly and financial conditions became more accommodating. On that same note, all that worry made investors trade more. Total Canadian trading volume shot up by 27%. This trading frenzy worked well for the Toronto based TMX Group.
Major stock trading platforms in Canada, run by the same company (TMX Group), got busier than usual in Q3 25. The Montreal Exchange (MX), where people trade complex financial tools such as options and futures, saw 23% more action. The main stock market for big companies, the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX), had 18% more trading. The market for smaller, riskier companies, the TSX Venture (TSXV), had a massive 33% jump in volume.
Victory lap for volumes
This bustling activity across the platforms is why TMX Group's total trading volume YTD hit a massive 104 billion securities, and the total value of all those trades topped CAD 3.7 trillion (USD 2.7 trillion), reflecting double-digit percentage increases over 2024 results.
The trading volume in December 2025 jumped by 36.6%, with over 16.24 billion securities changing hands. The total value of all those trades surged to a cool CAD 382bn — i.e. a 30.4% increase from the previous December.
The TSX Venture exchange was the star performer: its volume jumped over 44%, and the value of trades more than doubled (up 132%)! The Montréal Exchange saw huge action in interest rate contracts (called CORRA futures), with nearly 4.9 million contracts traded in December 2025 alone.
A look at the green gains
No surprises here that these high volumes in Q3 25 directly impacted the bottom line. TMX Group had a stellar third quarter, making significantly more money than last year. The company’s y/y growth revenue shot up an impressive 18% compared to Q3 2024, hitting CAD 418.6m (up from CAD 353.8m). However, compared to the previous quarter (Q2 25), revenue actually dipped a tiny bit — down 1% from CAD 421.7m.
Derivatives Trading and Clearing was the standout performer for the quarter, with revenue jumping 27% to CAD 105.7m from CAD 83.2m in Q3 24. This growth was primarily fueled by strong trading volumes across its platforms.
The big picture
Well, January 2026 hasn't been a great start for the stock. The company's stock price is down about 2.4% so far this year. However, zooming out over the last 12 months, it gave investors a total return of roughly 13.5%. Analysts have an average 12-month price target of approximately CAD 62.62, suggesting a potential upside from the current price of CAD 51. Currently, six out of the eight analysts who track the company give the stock their stamp of approval.
High stakes
The market’s mood swings can be unpredictable for the TMX Group. Their bank account is directly connected to market volatility. Any untoward spiral, and their revenue from trading could take a direct hit. As a critical infrastructure provider, the company is susceptible to cybersecurity threats and systemic technical failures, that could wreck their reputation and lead to regulatory penalties.
