The precious metals rally was one of last year's biggest market stories, and it is still driving trading sessions in early 2026.
After rising 65% in 2025, gold surged nearly 30% in January to peak at $5,600. The move was even more spectacular in silver: up 148% in 2025 and as much as +69% in January, topping $120. This was no longer a rally but an upside crash; a surge so steep that a correction was inevitable.
This fall began late last week, triggered by the appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair. The choice of the former Fed governor likely eases fears about the institution losing its independence.
The correction matched the rise, with a session of -28% for silver and -10% for gold on Friday. For fans of technical analysis, it makes for some fairly striking charts. These are no longer candles but church candles, so violent are the moves.
And yet, here we are talking about assets that are considered as safe havens. One question raised by the emergence of cryptocurrencies was whether Bitcoin would become the new gold. Now, the absurd swings are prompting a different question: is gold the new Bitcoin?
In any case, precious metals are a segment where there is currently a great deal of speculation. There is still, of course, a fundamental story behind the rally: geopolitical tensions, government debt, central bank buying... However, in recent weeks, retail investors have played a dominant role in this market, explaining the sharp volatility. "January will go down as the month silver traded like a meme stock," said Nicky Shiels, an analyst at Swiss firm MKS.
Meme stocks are shares that retail investors piled into in early 2021, sending the price of some names (such as AMC or GameStop) soaring and costing hedge funds hundreds of millions of dollars. Retail investors in particular organize on Reddit. According to JPMorgan's Eloise Goulder, mentions of the term "silver" on social media in January were 20 times higher than the average.
The correction, however, has proved shortlived, and precious metals are already moving higher again. After falling to $4,400 on Monday, an ounce of gold is back above $5,000. Silver, meanwhile, slipped towards $70 on Monday, before rebounding sharply to top $90 this morning.
The sharp rise in precious metals in January has led several major banks to raise their target prices for gold. This week it was JPMorgan's turn, now targeting $6,300 an ounce by the end of 2026.
