The oil group reported a European Refining Margin (ERM) indicator of $85.7 per tonne over Q4 2025, compared with $63 in Q3, according to data published this morning.
Expressed in dollars per barrel - the profitability measure the energy company now wants to prioritize in reporting its performance - the refining margin came in at $11.4 in Q4, compared with $8.4 over the previous three months.
Despite Brent crude falling by over $10 y-o-y to $63.7 a barrel from $74.7 in Q4 2024, Total said it expects segment cash flow for the past quarter to be "at the same level as a year ago” - thanks to growth in output.
Hydrocarbon production in Q4 2025 is expected to rise by nearly 5% y-o-y, leading to growth of nearly 4% for FY 2025, above its initial target of an increase of over 3%.
The average selling price of liquids stood at $61.4 a barrel from January to the end of December, compared with $66.5 a barrel in Q3 2024, Total added.
Average gas selling prices slipped to $8.48 per million BTU (British thermal unit), from $8.91 over the previous three months.
Following the update, TotalEnergies shares were up 0.5% on the Paris stock exchange, one of the few winners in the CAC 40 index, which was down about 1%.
The fact that cash flow is expected to be at the same level as a year ago implies a figure of around $7.3bn in Q4, 11% above the current consensus of $6.6bn, one trader said in London.
TotalEnergies SE is one of the leading worldwide oil groups. Net sales break down by activity as follows:
- refining and chemistry (43.6%): refining of petroleum products (operated, at the end of 2024, 14 refineries throughout the world) and manufacture of basic chemistry (olefins, aromatics, polyethylene, fertilizer, etc.) and of specialty chemistry (rubber, resins, adhesives, etc.). The group is also operating in trading and sea transport of crude oil and oil products;
- petroleum products distribution (38.8%): at the end of 2024 operated 13,148 service stations worldwide;
- electricity generation (10.3%): from combined cycle gas plants and renewable energies;
- gas production, trading, transport and distribution (4.6%): primarily liquefied natural gas (39.8 million tons sold in 2024), natural gas, biogas, hydrogen, liquefied petroleum gas, etc.;
- hydrocarbon operating and production (2.6%): 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent produced per day in 2024;
- other (0.1%).
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: France (23%), Europe (41.5%), Africa (10.2%), North America (8.4%) and other (16.9%).
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