Wall Street futures were higher at the start of the week, as traders prepared for a dense calendar of earnings reports from corporate heavyweights such as Tesla, Netflix, General Motors, and Procter & Gamble. Third-quarter profits for companies in the S&P 500 are expected to rise by more than 9% compared with last year, suggesting that American businesses remain resilient despite a backdrop of political dysfunction and trade frictions.

Oil prices, meanwhile, are drifting lower. Brent crude has slipped modestly, hinting at softer energy demand or perhaps relief that the latest geopolitical tensions - whether over Russia, the Middle East, or Asia - have yet to spill over into supply shocks. 

The U.S. government shutdown has entered its third week, blocking the release of the consumer-price index, one of the most closely watched indicators of inflation. The lack of data has left investors flying partially blind ahead of the Federal Reserve’s late-October policy meeting. Markets are betting that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point, and perhaps again in December. The absence of hard numbers, however, makes that confidence more guesswork than science. However, the market doesn't seem to care that much and remains bullish.

Investors have also learned to discount political antics. Donald Trump has oscillated between threats and concessions on trade, floating the idea of scaling back tariffs on Chinese goods if Beijing resumes purchases of American exports. He has also brandished new tariff threats against India and Colombia, linking them to oil imports and narcotics enforcement. Last week’s spike in the VIX - the so-called “fear gauge” " proved short-lived. Traders appear to have concluded that Washington’s dysfunction is unlikely to derail corporate America’s profit machine.

In Asia, optimism is returning, though cautiously. Japan’s markets rallied nearly 3% on news that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party has struck a coalition deal that could propel Sanae Takaichi to become the country’s first female prime minister. Her reputation for fiscal stimulus and low-interest-rate policies has revived enthusiasm for growth-linked strategies.

China, meanwhile, reported GDP figures broadly in line with expectations, though slower than previous quarters. Investors are again speculating that Beijing may unveil new stimulus measures at an upcoming four-day policy meeting. They will likely be disappointed; China’s leaders have consistently preferred gradual adjustment to headline-grabbing stimulus.

 European stock markets are well in the green, with the Stoxx Europe 600 up 0.6%.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: China's quarterly, annual, and year-to-date GDP; industrial production and retail sales in China; the PPI in Germany; the leading index in the United States. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 98,535
  • Gold: $4,255
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $60.97 (WTI) $56.82
  • United States 10 years: 4.01%
  • BITCOIN: $110,833

In corporate news:

  • Apple faces an antitrust complaint from 55 Chinese consumers alleging monopolistic App Store practices and high in-app commission fees.
  • A widespread Amazon Web Services outage disrupted major platforms including Snapchat, Vodafone, Zoom, Lyft, Signal, Robinhood, and Coinbase, with services gradually recovering.
  • Micron will exit the Chinese server chip market due to continued fallout from a 2023 ban, though it will maintain chip sales in other Chinese sectors.
  • Meta is finalizing a $30 billion financing deal with Blue Owl Capital and Morgan Stanley for its Louisiana-based Hyperion data center.
  • Pfizer and Astellas Pharma announced their prostate cancer treatment combining Xtandi and leuprolide cut death risk by over 40% in a Phase 3 trial.
  • L3Harris secured a $2.26 billion contract to deliver modified Bombardier aircraft to the South Korean Air Force.
  • Amazon and IBM expanded their cloud and AI partnership to serve public and private sectors in Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
  • Lockheed Martin is poised to receive an additional order from Germany for 15 F-35 jets, valued at around €2.5 billion.
  • Winbond Electronics purchased machinery equipment worth NT$2 billion from Lam Research International.
  • DP Poland extended its exclusive Domino’s Pizza master franchise agreement in Poland to 2035, with a renewal option to 2045.
  • Natera reported a 41% improvement in overall survival in bladder cancer patients from its IMvigor011 trial.
  • Amazon is exploring a potential investment in German delivery firm Flink, seeking less than €100 million for expansion.
  • Boeing received FAA approval to increase monthly 737 production from 38 to 42 jets after safety reviews.
  • Jana Partners built a stake in The Cooper Companies and is pushing for strategic alternatives, potentially including a merger of its contact-lens business with Bausch + Lomb.
  • Amgen announced that its drug bemarituzumab significantly improved survival in a Phase 3 gastric cancer trial.
  • Germany intends to purchase an additional 15 F-35 jets from the US for 2.5 billion euros.
  • TGS ASA secured a contract for an OBN 4D survey in the Gulf of America.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Darden Restaurants, Inc.: Goldman Sachs upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price of USD 225.
  • Digital Realty Trust, Inc.: Wolfe Research upgrades to outperform from peerperform with a target price of USD 194.
  • Qorvo, Inc.: Mizuho Securities downgrades to underperform from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 87 to USD 75.
  • Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc.: Wolfe Research downgrades to peerperform from outperform.
  • Schlumberger Limited: Piper Sandler & Co upgrades to overweight from neutral with a price target raised from USD 41 to USD 42.
  • Sempra: Barclays upgrades to overweight from equalweight and raises the target price from USD 80 to USD 101.
  • Skyworks Solutions, Inc.: Mizuho Securities downgrades to underperform from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 70 to USD 60.
  • Choice Hotels International, Inc.: JP Morgan maintains its underweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 124 to USD 99.
  • Electronic Arts Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its equalwt recommendation and raises the target price from USD 148 to USD 210.
  • Incyte Corporation: BMO Capital Markets maintains its underperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 60 to USD 75.
  • Mongodb, Inc.: Arete Research maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 300 to USD 395.