The world's markets are still unsure about what the Venezuela operation really means for oil and stocks. Donald Trump promised that American drillers would help revive Venezuela's vast crude reserves, and his administration plans to meet oil executives this week to discuss boosting production. Energy stocks rose on Monday, as investors imagined a future where U.S. firms tap barrels long locked away by sanctions and misrule. Exxon Mobil and Chevron rose, SLB jumped more than 1%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was pushed to a fresh record, now hovering roughly 2% below the psychologically potent 50,000 mark.
The other sector to benefit logically from the weekend's events was defence. Leading U.S. contractors like Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics saw strong gains. In Europe, the same trend was seen : BAE Systems, Rheinmetall and Thales all rose over 4%. Defence firms have already capitalised on the global rearmament trend since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. In the second half of 2025, their shares cooled somewhat amid hopes for peace in Ukraine. But today's geopolitical reality, and the United States' new doctrine, have reignited interest in the sector, still viewed by financiers as a must-have.
However, investors know that an oil boom is still a pipe dream, and that reality is less excitable, as we explained in details in this article. Venezuela's oil industry is in poor shape, and even optimists concede it would take many years before it could pump large quantities again. By Tuesday morning, futures were already cooling.
Beyond oil, the Maduro episode has added another layer of volatility to commodities more broadly. Oil prices have been choppy as traders balance geopolitical risk against the very real fear of oversupply - hardly helped by Saudi Arabia cutting the price of its flagship Arab Light crude to Asia for the third straight month, a clear signal of caution about demand. Precious metals have benefited from the unease: gold extended its gains as investors sought safety, even as analysts warned that commodity index rebalancing could soon prompt passive funds to trim positions after gold's strongest annual performance since 1979.
Attention is now shifting to the labor market, with December's nonfarm payrolls report due on Friday. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expect 73,000 jobs to have been added, up from 64,000 in November. The numbers matter more than usual after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell urged caution in December about cutting rates further until there is clearer evidence on the health of employment.
In other news, in energy, Vistra agreed to buy Cogentrix Energy from Quantum Capital Group for about $4.7 billion. In technology, the artificial-intelligence arms race continues at an almost athletic pace. Intel launched Panther Lake, its new AI chip for laptops and the first product built using its next-generation 18A manufacturing process, helping its shares edge higher. AMD unveiled its Instinct MI440X chips and later showcased the forthcoming MI455, boasting 70% more transistors and 400 gigabytes of ultrafast HBM4 memory, in a bid to challenge Nvidia more seriously. Nvidia, for its part, is rolling out faster than expected, with its Vera Rubin AI server systems due to go on sale in the second half of the year. Even Dell is rethinking its strategy, reviving the XPS line after admitting it focused too heavily on premium commercial machines. Microchip Technology raised its sales outlook on strong bookings, sending its shares sharply higher.
Meanwhile, nineteen U.S. states raised their minimum wage at the start of the year, lifting pay for an estimated 8.3m workers and leaving 30 states with floors above the federal $7.25 an hour.
Back in Venezuela, the political aftershocks are only beginning. The country's new leader, Delcy Rodríguez, is trying to appease both the hard-line remnants of Maduro's regime and President Trump - a narrow path indeed.
Today's macroeconomic focus is on December inflation figures across several European countries. In commodities, copper breached the USD 13,000 per tonne mark for the first time. The industrial metal has become the star of recent months, driven by surging demand from the data centre construction frenzy. Speculation has also been stoked by U.S. companies stockpiling supplies in anticipation of the Trump administration's threat to impose tariffs on refined metals.
In Asia-Pacific this morning, technology continues to support Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and China. Australia (-0.5%) and India (-0.4%) remain laggards. Europe is slightly bullish while futures on Wall Street are mixed.
Today's economic highlights:
- Dollar index: 98,401
- Gold: $4,459
- Crude Oil (BRENT): $62.00 (WTI) $58.54
- United States 10 years: 4.17%
- BITCOIN: $93,640
In corporate news:
- Goldman Sachs launched its secondaries advisory franchise in EMEA and completed a $665 million acquisition of Industry Ventures.
- SGH and Steel Dynamics made a near $9 billion buyout offer for BlueScope, aiming to split its Australian and U.S. operations; shares of BlueScope surged 21%.
- Meta delayed the international launch of its Ray-Ban Display AR glasses due to strong U.S. demand and limited supply.
- AIG appointed Eric Andersen as CEO, replacing Peter Zaffino who becomes executive chair.
- Variant Bio partnered with Boehringer Ingelheim in an AI-driven drug discovery deal worth over $120 million.
- Cartography Biosciences and Pfizer entered a tumor antigen R&D collaboration worth over $800 million.
- Grab acquired Infermove, an AI robotics firm, to improve its delivery logistics.
- Morgan Stanley filed to launch a bitcoin ETF.
- Energy Transfer plans to invest up to $5.5 billion in 2026 for gas infrastructure expansion.
- Volkswagen and Porsche are recalling over 500,000 U.S. vehicles due to rearview camera faults.
- Dell revived its XPS brand with new laptops, the XPS 14 and XPS 16, to boost PC market share.
- AMD introduced its MI455 AI chip at CES, showcasing new AI hardware and humanoid robot GENE.01.
- Nvidia unveiled its Vera Rubin AI platform at CES, claiming 5x performance and announcing partnerships with CoreWeave, Supermicro, Nebius, and others.
- Intel launched its first 18A chips and Core Ultra Series 3 at CES, including the Panther Lake platform for AI and gaming.
- Lucid, Nuro, and Uber unveiled a production-intent robotaxi and began on-road testing, aiming for Bay Area launch later in 2026.
- U.S. wheat futures rose slightly on dry conditions in the Plains, though gains were capped by strong global supply.
- Tesla's UK sales dropped 29% in December amid rising competition from BYD, despite retaining EV market leadership.
- Universal Music Group will buy a $90 million stake in India's Excel Entertainment to expand its regional footprint.
- QXO secured a $1.2 billion investment led by Apollo for M&A activity.
- Bed Bath & Beyond named Marcus Lemonis as CEO.
- Sanofi said the FDA accepted priority review to expand its Tzield diabetes drug to children as young as one.
- Williams Companies priced $2.75 billion in senior notes across three maturities.
- AT&T will move its headquarters from Dallas to Plano, Texas.
- U.S. childhood vaccine guidance was revised to drop universal recommendations for flu, meningitis, rotavirus, and hepatitis A.
- Maduro is being held at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, described by experts as dangerous and deteriorating.
- U.S. may subsidize oil firms to rebuild Venezuela's energy infrastructure, Trump stated.
Analyst Recommendations:
- At&T Inc.: Arete Research downgrades to sell from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 26 to USD 20.
- Axon Enterprise, Inc.: NorthCoast Research upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price of USD 742.
- Bank Of America Corporation: Daiwa Securities upgrades to buy from outperform and raises the target price from USD 61 to USD 66.
- Brunswick Corporation: Jefferies upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 65 to USD 115.
- Comcast Corporation: Arete Research downgrades to sell from neutral and reduces the target price from USD 33 to USD 23.
- Comerica Incorporated: UBS upgrades to buy from neutral with a price target raised from USD 84 to USD 106.
- Fifth Third Bancorp: UBS upgrades to buy from neutral and raises the target price from USD 45 to USD 57.
- First Citizens Bancshares, Inc.: Goldman Sachs downgrades to neutral from buy and raises the target price from USD 1950 to USD 2300.
- Globe Life Inc.: Evercore ISI downgrades to in-line from outperform with a target price of USD 155.
- Huntington Bancshares Incorporated: Autonomous Research upgrades to outperform from neutral and raises the target price from USD 20 to USD 21.
- Kla Corporation: Cantor Fitzgerald upgrades to overweight from neutral and raises the target price from USD 1350 to USD 1500.
- Landstar System, Inc.: Wells Fargo upgrades to overweight from equalweight and raises the target price from USD 145 to USD 170.
- M&T Bank Corporation: Evercore ISI downgrades to in-line from outperform and raises the target price from USD 210 to USD 225.
- Medtronic Plc: William Blair upgrades to outperform from market perform.
- Metlife, Inc.: Evercore ISI downgrades to in-line from outperform and reduces the target price from USD 108 to USD 97.
- Microchip Technology, Inc.: Cantor Fitzgerald upgrades to overweight from neutral and raises the target price from USD 65 to USD 85.
- Reddit, Inc.: William O'Neil & Co Incorporated initiates coverage with a buy recommendation.
- Saia, Inc.: Stephens upgrades to overweight from equalweight and raises the target price from USD 308 to USD 414.
- Stryker Corporation: Raymond James upgrades to outperform from market perform with a target price of USD 418.
- Truist Financial Corporation: Evercore ISI upgrades to outperform from in-line and raises the target price from USD 49 to USD 58.
- Zimmer Biomet Holdings, Inc.: Raymond James downgrades to market perform from outperform.
- Zions Bancorporation, National Association: Evercore ISI downgrades to in-line from outperform with a target price of USD 65.
