Trump Says Oil Majors Will Invest $100 Billion in Venezuela -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

-- Brent crude oil rises 0.8% to $62.52 a barrel.

-- European benchmark gas is up 0.9% to 27.95 euros a megawatt-hour.

-- Gold futures are up 0.4% to $4,479.30 a troy ounce.

-- LME three-month copper futures are up 1.9% to $12,946.50 a metric ton.

TOP STORY:

Trump Says Oil Majors Will Invest $100 Billion in Venezuela

President Trump said early Friday that American oil companies would pour $100 billion of investment into Venezuela to jumpstart its oil industry.

Trump's social-media post came hours before he is expected to meet representatives of Chevron, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips and other oil companies at the White House to discuss investing in Venezuela.

The country was one of the world's largest producers of crude, but years of sanctions, dysfunctional government and corruption have left its oil industry a shadow of its former self.

OTHER STORIES:

Rio Tinto, Glencore Restart Talks to Form World's Biggest Miner

Rio Tinto and Glencore are in talks about a deal that could create the world's largest mining company with a market value of more than $200 billion, as a scramble for copper and other metals drives an industry return to big acquisitions.

Glencore and Rio Tinto separately confirmed that talks are under way over an all-share deal, revisiting a tie-up that was first discussed around a year ago when the U.S. and other countries began reshaping supply chains for metals and minerals essential to industries such as defense, automaking and semiconductor chips.

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Glencore Shares Jump on Talks With Rio Tinto to Create World's Largest Miner

Shares in commodity giant Glencore climbed on talks with Rio Tinto for an all-share merger that would create the world's largest mining company.

In morning trade in London, Glencore shares rose 8.5% to 448 pence--their highest level in over a year. Despite the rise, shares still trade significantly below their peak in January 2023, and give the Switzerland-based commodity trading and mining group a market capitalization of roughly $70.43 billion.

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A Shadow Fleet Smuggles Illicit Oil Across the High Seas. This Is How It Works.

Two sanctioned oil tankers shut off their transponders earlier this month and powered to a meetup point, drawing alongside each other in the Sea of Japan.

The crew of one of the vessels, known as the Kapitan Kostichev, then emptied 700,000 barrels of Russian crude into the tanks of the other, the Jun Tong, according to ship-tracking service Kpler.

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Meta Unveils Sweeping Nuclear-Power Plan to Fuel Its AI Ambitions

Meta Platforms on Friday unveiled a series of agreements that would make it an anchor customer for new and existing nuclear power in the U.S., where it needs city-size amounts of electricity for its artificial-intelligence data centers.

The Facebook parent said it would back new reactor projects with the developers TerraPower and Oklo and has struck a deal with the power producer Vistra to purchase and expand the generation output of three existing nuclear plants in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

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Trump's $50 Oil Price Goal Is Doable, but Painful

President Trump wants to drive down oil prices to $50 a barrel. Getting to that price appears doable with Venezuela, though keeping it there comes with risks.

The good news for the administration is that, if the real goal is to lower gasoline prices for U.S. consumers, global oil prices might not need to come down that much.

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Trump's Risky Fixation With Other Countries' Oil

WASHINGTON-A smooth-faced 41-year-old Donald Trump settled in before a live studio audience assembled for The Oprah Winfrey Show and held forth on how America should be getting a cut of Kuwaiti oil.

"Kuwait is not paying us for all the oil they're sending out," said Trump, wearing a familiar solid red tie, as Oprah pressed him on his foreign policy views during the April 1988 interview. He complained that the Kuwaitis "live like kings" while the American military protected their tankers amid the Iraq-Iran War.

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Why Taking Venezuela's Oil Could Actually Lift Its Fortunes

President Trump's surprise announcement that the U.S. would take millions of barrels of Venezuelan crude could be an economic boon for the battered South American nation-if Washington and Caracas can maintain their nascent detente, U.S. officials and economists said.

That might be a big if, but economists said restoring a trade link with the U.S. would generate badly needed cash for a country dependent on importing food and basic goods. Trump said in a Truth Social post Tuesday that Venezuela would turn over to the U.S. 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil, which would be sold at market price. Trump said he would personally control the proceeds "to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States."

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World Food Prices Fall for Fourth Straight Month, U.N. FAO Says

Global food prices fell for a fourth consecutive month in December, when declines in dairy and meat outweighed gains in cereals and sugar, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization said.

The FAO's food price index--which tracks a basket of widely traded food commodities--averaged 124.3 points in December, down 0.6% from November and more than 22% below the March 2022 peak after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

MARKET TALKS:

Copper on Track for Strong Weekly Gain After Breaking Record -- Market Talk

1131 GMT - Copper prices are headed for a weekly gain of 4% after hitting a new record high earlier this week. In afternoon trading, futures on the London Metal Exchange rise 2% to $12,949 a metric ton, having surpassed the $13,000 mark on Tuesday supported by fears of tightening supply amid heavy stockpiling in the U.S. and mine disruptions. "The underlying support remains constructive: tariff-related fears continue to encourage incremental COMEX inventory build, while the broader balance is tightening as AI-driven demand expectations underpin the narrative," analysts at Sucden Financial say. ([e-mail])

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Europe's TTF Gas Price Projected to Remain Broadly Stable in 2026 -- Market Talk

1129 GMT - European natural-gas prices are forecast to remain broadly stable at current levels this year, as a fresh wave of LNG supply compensates for the loss of Russian pipeline flows, Rabobank analysts say. "The European gas market enters 2026 in a markedly different position than the crisis years of 2021-2022," Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit say. "The additional U.S. and Qatari volumes in 2026 will provide a cushion against volatility, reducing the risk of price spikes during seasonal demand peaks." Rabobank forecasts TTF prices, the European benchmark, at an average of 27 euros a megawatt hour this year and 26 euros the next. In afternoon trade, TTF is up 1.1% to 28 euros a megawatt hour. ([e-mail])

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BHP Group the Most Likely Interloper on Rio Tinto-Glencore Deal -- Market Talk

1052 GMT - BHP Group is the most likely interloper on the Rio Tinto-Glencore merger, Berenberg's Richard Hatch and Jasper Mainwaring write. It has already twice failed to buy Anglo American in a bid to grow its copper portfolio, they say. "BHP could look to acquire Glencore with a rival bid, keep copper, and likely divest the balance," they say. Glencore's shares rise 10% to 455.30 pence, while BHP's London-listed shares fall 0.6% to 2,307 pence. ([e-mail])

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'Mother of All Mining Deals' Could Be Back on the Table -- Market Talk

1031 GMT - The "mother of all mining deals" could be back on the table as Rio Tinto and Glencore confirm they are having preliminary merger talks, Hargreaves Lansdown's Derren Nathan writes. While the merger would create a global leader in multiple metals, deals aren't an automatic path to delivering value for investors, he adds. Synergies could be delivered but how Glencore's coal and trading arm would sit with Rio Tinto's business model poses questions, he says. Coal could be a particular sticking point given Rio Tinto's push for improved sustainability credentials, Nathan writes. Glencore shares rise 9% while Rio Tinto's London listed shares fall nearly 2%.([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Ends Lower Amid Profit-Taking Prospects, Inventory Concerns -- Market Talk

1013 GMT - Palm oil closed lower, with the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for March delivery ending 5 ringgit lower at 4,038 ringgit a ton. Prospects of profit-taking activities ahead of the release of Malaysian Palm Oil Board data next week and lingering concerns over elevated December inventories are likely to cap any gains in palm oil prices, Kenanga Futures says. The brokerage sees support for palm oil prices at 4,015 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,115 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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China's Stockpiling Seen as Key Source of Demand in 2026 -- Market Talk

1010 GMT - China's strategic oil inventories are set to be a key source of demand for the market's surplus barrels in 2026, according to Rabobank analysts. The bank estimates that lower crude prices last year prompted Beijing to add 500,000 to 1 million barrels a day to its reserves. Buying only slowed in October after U.S. sanctions targeted Russia's Rosneft and Lukoil. "If the Chinese loved buying strategic barrels at $65, they will certainly love buying more SPR [Strategic Petroleum Reserve] barrels lower," Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmit say. Rabobank estimates Brent crude between $55 and $60 a barrel in 2026. ([e-mail])

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European Oil Majors Rally as Geopolitical Tensions Push Prices Higher -- Market Talk

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01-09-26 0706ET