The video game specialist said it now expects net bookings (game sales, add-on content and subscriptions) of around €1.5bn for FY 2025-2026. Previously, it expected a stable figure versus FY 2024-2025, at around €1,846.4bn, which ultimately represents a drop of nearly 19%.
This decline should also translate into about a €330m reduction in its gross margin, according to a Ubisoft statement.
The profit warning is mainly due to changes to the release pipeline for the current quarter. In particular, Ubisoft has updated its roadmap and decided to postpone negotiations on certain partnerships as part of the overhaul of the group's operating model.
As a result of these decisions, EBIT is expected to be around -€1bn, worse than a previous expectation of close to zero, leading to accelerated impairments of around €650m, notably due to the halt in the development of six games.
In addition, Ubisoft has logically withdrawn its guidance for FY 2026-2027 and will provide new figures in May.
Oddo BHF analysts cited "a big reset" and believe that it will take at least three years for the new organization to enable the group to regain its ability to regularly launch successful games, returning to sustainable growth and robust cash generation. The broker notes that Ubisoft shares are at a low (-92% in five years) and reiterates its negative recommendation of Underperform, cutting its target price from €9 to €5.
For TP Icap Midcap, this is a "major upheaval". Analysts said the group has decided on a revamp into five "Creative Houses", the largest of which will be Vantage Studios, dedicated to the three main brands (Assassins's Creed, Far Cry and Rainbow Six). For TP Icap Midcap, "the prospect of a return to cash generation seems distant to us and the financial structure is likely to be weakened again in the short term".
