UBS maintains its buy recommendation and price target of 95 € ahead of Danone's Q4 2025 results release. The analyst notes that momentum remains strong.
UBS anticipates like-for-like growth of +4.3% in the fourth quarter (driven by SN) and expects an improvement in the Group's operating margin by +46 basis points in 2025.
According to the analyst, Danone should forecast like-for-like growth of 3 to 5%, margin improvement, and EPS growth in 2026.
At the current share price, the stock is trading at a 2025 P/E of 22x with a yield of 3%.
Danone is one the world leading food-processing groups. Net sales break down by family of products as follows:
- dairy products and plant products (49.2%; No. 1 worldwide): fresh fermented milk products, creams, products and drinks of plant origin (based in particular on soya, almond, hazelnut, rice, oats and coconut);
- specialized nutrition products (32.6%): baby foods (No. 1 worldwide; foods for infants and young children in addition to breastfeeding) and medical nutrition products (No. 2 in Europe; foods for people suffering from certain pathologies or people weakened by age);
- bottled water (18.2%; No. 2 worldwide): natural water, aromatized water or enriched in vitamins (brands Evian, Volvic, Badoit, Aqua, etc.).
At the end of 2024, the group had more than 180 production sites throughout the world.
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: France (8.4%), Europe (26.5%), North America (24%), China/Japan/Australia/New Zealand (13.5%), Latin America (11.1%) and other (16.5%).
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