(When numbers are not sourced, they come from the latest Bain & Co report on luxury). 

China: The end of an era, the start of a new one

Luxury consumption in China is re-emerging, albeit unevenly. Several surveys show a shift toward more discreet luxury, away from the ostentatious logos that dominated in recent years. This trend is paired with rising local competition, challenging international brands. (see this topic: an article discussing this dynamic and Bernard Arnault's shopping in China). The Chinese luxury market has fallen sharply this year (about -7%), but should stabilize next year.

Europe: luxury tourism losing momentum

Europe, traditionally the epicenter of luxury shopping, is losing some of its sheen. The weakness of the dollar has tempered American tourist demand, who previously enjoyed an attractive price differential there. Europe's luxury chief at JPMorgan notes a price gap that shifted from 26% to 20% for Americans compared to summer 2024.

United States: A welcome resilience

Resilience of luxury on American soil is welcome for a sector that could not rely on Europe or China this year. A market that could become the top luxury market in value next year if tariff impact, and thus inflation, remains limited.

In any case, it is wealthier Americans - sheltered from inflationary pressure - and the strength of stockmarkets that have contributed to the current positive momentum. The wealth effect caused by strong market performance often translates into higher luxury spending. Take Ferragamo sales in the US as an illustration: the group posted a 3.3% drop in Q2, but recovered 15.6% in Q3. Generally, all sector players posted solid performances on the continent this quarter, and the momentum is expected to continue.

Middle East: a pillar in the making

And finally, the most promising and least exploited region of all, the Middle East. Dubai and Abu Dhabi lead the way due to their strong tourist appeal. The region does not emerge as a new alternative but as a genuine potential pillar. But beware of future vulnerabilities in case of regional tensions, since luxury tourism chiefly underpins this dynamic.

(Data expressed in billions of euros, at constant exchange rates, and come from the recent Bain & Co luxury report)

Luxury remains a fundamentally resilient sector, but its geography, like its sociology, is evolving. More generally, consulting firms and major banks agree that consumption is likely to be more restrained than in recent years, consumers are more oriented toward experiences, and what is called "affordable luxury". In a world where the perception of exclusivity is changing, it is impossible to ignore brands with strong identity but a much lower entry price than the mega-players. Recent stockmarket performances of Ralph Lauren, Tapestry, and Arc'teryx (Amer Sports) attest to this, to name but a few.

After a worrying H1, the sector has improved and prevents a downturn this year. For the second consecutive year, the market should remain broadly flat. However, 2026 is expected to mark an end to the stagnation, with a projected 3 to 5% growth. It remains to be seen how much these prospects are reflected in stock prices, as sector leaders have seen their market capitalizations rebound in recent months.