(Alliance News) - Following the moves by Banco BPM, Intesa Sanpaolo, and Unipol regarding Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Mediobanca, and the 13.3% stake held by MPS in Assicurazioni Generali, the market is questioning the next steps for UniCredit and its CEO Andrea Orcel.

In recent years, as reported by Corriere della Sera on Tuesday, UniCredit has twice attempted to enter MPS, first in 2021 through a state-backed acquisition and subsequently in September 2024 during the final phase of the Sienese bank's privatization.

The offer launched in November 2024 for Banco BPM and other consolidation initiatives promoted by the group also failed to reach fruition. In parallel, UniCredit has accumulated a stake of approximately 9% in Generali.

Should Intesa Sanpaolo's bid for MPS conclude successfully, Italy's top two banks would both find themselves among the shareholders of the Trieste-based insurance group, which manages nearly EUR900 billion in savings.

However, both Andrea Orcel and Carlo Messina have reiterated that their respective holdings in Generali are for financial purposes rather than control.

Market participants consider a new attempt by UniCredit on MPS unlikely, not least because the group is focused on the public exchange offer launched for Commerzbank.

The Italian institution has already exceeded 30% of the German bank's capital and aims to surpass 40% through financial instruments. The transaction aims to create a European group capable of generating EUR45 billion in revenue and EUR21 billion in profit by 2030.

The final acceptance rate will be known on June 16, the closing date of the offer unless extended. A stake of around 40% would allow UniCredit to consolidate Commerzbank into its balance sheet, while 66% would be required to control the shareholders' meeting and approve extraordinary transactions.

Once the German deal is concluded, UniCredit could return to evaluating opportunities in Italy, including Banco BPM. However, the group would have to contend with conditions imposed by the government via golden power and with Crédit Agricole, Banco BPM's largest shareholder with 22.8% of the capital and potentially able to increase its stake to 29%.

By Antonio Di Giorgio, Alliance News reporter

Comments and questions to redazione@alliancenews.com

Copyright 2026 Alliance News IS Italian Service Ltd. All rights reserved.