(Alliance News) - Three weeks after launching its exchange offer for Commerzbank, UniCredit has secured commitments for less than 1% of the share capital through its subsidiary HVB. As of the May 19 reporting date, the tendered stake stood at a mere 0.02%, yet CEO Andrea Orcel remains confident that the transaction can still succeed.

As reported on Monday by Corriere della Sera in its L'Economia supplement, the offer period, originally set for four weeks, has been extended to six and is now due to expire on June 16. This deadline could be further pushed to June 30 should the exchange ratio be adjusted.

UniCredit already holds 26.77% of Commerzbank and, through options and derivatives, has the potential to reach 40.69% of the capital, representing approximately 42% when excluding treasury shares.

However, the deal continues to face stiff political resistance in Germany, further fueled by the debate over BTP holdings within Italian banks. Fabrizio Palenzona weighed in on the matter, noting that recent Italian sovereign debt issuances saw demand outstripping supply by 11 times.

According to some segments of the German financial and business community, a tie-up between UniCredit and Commerzbank could create a private banking group comparable to Deutsche Bank, with minimal territorial overlap and a robust presence in retail and corporate banking. The German system currently operates with four major players: Deutsche Bank, Commerzbank, DZ, and HVB.

Orcel can also leverage long-standing ties with Allianz and the backing of investors such as Axiom Alternative Investments. Jerome Legras, a partner at the French firm, argues that UniCredit does not require '50% plus one share' to exercise de facto control over Commerzbank, given the historically low shareholder turnout at the annual general meetings of major German banks.

Nevertheless, the transaction could draw scrutiny from the European Central Bank, which must assess the risks of a systemic bank exerting dominant influence over another without a fully negotiated merger.

By Antonio Di Giorgio, Alliance News reporter

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