Last night, Donald Trump stated on the Truth Social network that the deal with Iran is "now finalized," including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of the US naval blockade, and an immediate ceasefire in the Middle East, including Lebanon. The signing announced for this Friday would bring an end to an approximately four-month conflict between the Americans and Iranians.

Speaking to the American television network Fox News, US Vice President Vance expects to attend the signing in Switzerland, adding that the presence of the US President was also "possible."

For his part, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed overnight Sunday to Monday that an agreement has been reached between Washington and Tehran, while emphasizing that "Iran has won great victories in this war."

Furthermore, the E4 countries (United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy) welcomed the agreement yesterday, stating in a joint communique that they are ready to lift certain sanctions weighing on Iran. "Iran must never acquire nuclear weapons. We are ready to work with the United States, Iran, and the IAEA to this end," stated the leaders of these European countries, quoted in the release. They specified they are "willing to lift relevant sanctions in response to clear and verifiable steps by Iran regarding its nuclear program."

Following this strong sign of de-escalation, the Mehr news agency mentioned the existence of a text on Monday. This is presented as a 14-point memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States. The document published by Mehr provides for "the unfreezing of $24bn in Iranian assets during the 60-day negotiation period" that will open after the conclusion of the MOU. "Half of this sum must be made available to Iran before the start of negotiations," the text specifies, though it has not been officially confirmed.

Oil Prices Drop Sharply, Saint-Gobain Soars

"The ceasefire / de-escalation scenario between Iran and the United States reinforces the macroeconomic context we have been discussing with investors for several weeks: a reduction in geopolitical risk, lower oil prices, a slowdown in inflationary pressures, and a weaker US dollar constitute a favorable environment for emerging markets," commented Paulo Salazar, head of emerging markets at Candriam, regarding the agreement.

Following the announcement of a US-Iran deal, oil prices are plunging. Around 5:55 PM, Brent fell 6.90% to $82.98. WTI dropped 4.54% to $80.47.

Additionally, oil stocks suffered from the de-escalation. TotalEnergies shed 4.43%. Shell and BP retreated by 4.35% and 3.27% respectively.

In corporate news, Saint-Gobain posted one of the strongest gains on the CAC 40. The construction materials specialist gained 3.06% after announcing the sale of Dahl, its Scandinavian plumbing and heating distribution subsidiary, to Finnish distributor Kesko for €1.5bn.

Furthermore, Schneider Electric (+1.83%) finished higher. The electrical equipment manufacturer and Taiwanese electronics assembly specialist Foxconn announced this Monday the conclusion of a strategic partnership to define and deploy the next generation of AI-based data centers at scale.

On Wednesday evening around 8:00 PM, following the ECB, the Fed will in turn unveil its monetary policy decision. "It is expected to leave rates unchanged in a context where PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred indicator, accelerated to 3.8% year-on-year in April and where the labor market continues to show solid job creation (over 180,000 per month over the last three months ending in May), making any justification for a rate cut difficult," says Francois Rimeu, senior strategist at Credit Mutuel AM. The US Central Bank is expected to maintain the target range for federal funds rates at 3.50-3.75%.

This Thursday at 1:00 PM, following its meeting, it will be the Bank of England's turn to share its monetary policy decision. The BoE is expected to keep its key rate unchanged at 3.75%. "Since the start of the conflict between the US and Iran, the Bank's strategy has been to emphasize that its restrictive monetary policy stance, combined with tighter financial conditions (via higher interest rates), gives it some room for maneuver before it must signal any policy change to deal with the energy price shock," explains Ranjiv Mann, senior manager at AllianzGI.

"This approach has been validated by the continued weakening of labor market activity, with a slowdown in wage growth and business expectations regarding wage settlements also trending lower. This labor market dynamic gives the Bank the necessary room to adopt a 'wait and see' approach in the short term," he adds.

On the statistical front, the Eurozone trade surplus stood at €1.3bn in April 2026, an increase compared to March (€0.6bn), according to seasonally adjusted data published by Eurostat. This slight month-on-month increase reflects a 3.2% rise in Eurozone exports to €253.9bn, which more than absorbed the 2.9% increase in imports over the same period to €252.6bn.

In the Eurozone, industrial production for April increased by 0.1%, whereas analysts had hoped for a 0.2% rise following 0.4% in March (revised up from 0.2%).