FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - The 25,000-point mark could once again prove to be a tough hurdle for the DAX < DE0008469008A> in the coming week. Ongoing economic turbulence surrounding artificial intelligence, as well as persistent geopolitical concerns, continue to have the potential to weigh on Germany's leading index. On the other hand, key economic data from the United States could provide support for the stock market barometer, although much of the good news already seems to be priced in. All in all, there are several indications that the DAX will likely once again struggle to find a clear direction.

"The DAX still owes investors a clear trend," wrote Jochen Stanzl, chief market analyst at Consorsbank. After European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde recently ruled out an interest rate cut in the eurozone, investors' hopes are now shifting to more positive signals from the US. Given the recent back-and-forth in the markets, it may be enough if Wednesday's labor market report and Friday's inflation data do not completely slam the door on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

The market currently expects the Fed to cut key interest rates twice in 2026, aiming to make investments and loans cheaper and thereby stimulate the economy. As long as there are no overly negative signals from wage growth, employment, or price developments, the expected interest rate path is unlikely to be questioned. Should the economic data deliver positive surprises, this could reinforce expectations of rate cuts.

Nevertheless, equity strategist Markus Reinwand from Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba) urged caution. For some time now, there has been a significant gap between stock market valuations and the actual economic trend. Improving economic data would therefore merely confirm what equities have already priced in for months. The muted response to the recent strong data on German order intake is evidence of this.

Furthermore, investors are increasingly questioning whether the growth and profit expectations associated with artificial intelligence may have been somewhat exaggerated, Reinwand continued. As such, the DAX is more likely to consolidate in the coming week rather than post significant gains.

According to Robert Greil, chief strategist at private bank Merck Finck, geopolitics will continue to dominate global headlines—with corresponding potential impacts on equity markets. At the same time, the expert emphasized: "Despite all the uncertainties, the focus should remain on the essentials, namely the world economy, which is once again growing somewhat more dynamically, and the rapid developments in AI—because that's where the real action is on the stock market."

Meanwhile, the corporate reporting season for the past year is entering a new round. The agenda is particularly full on Wednesday and Thursday. Midweek, DAX-listed companies including Commerzbank, energy technology group Siemens Energy, and Deutsche Börse will publish their results, with the latter reporting after the market closes.

Thursday will see results from, among others, automaker Mercedes-Benz and technology group Siemens, which is currently in a race with software giant SAP for the title of most valuable DAX company. Investors at both SAP and Siemens will be watching closely to see to what extent artificial intelligence could threaten their respective business models./la/jsl/he

--- By Lutz Alexander, dpa-AFX ---