FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - The 25,000-point mark could once again prove to be a major hurdle for the Dax < DE0008469008A> in the coming week. Ongoing economic turbulence surrounding artificial intelligence, along with persistent geopolitical concerns, continue to have the potential to weigh on Germany's leading index. On the other hand, key economic data from the United States could provide support for the market barometer, even though much of the good news already appears to be priced in. All things considered, there is much to suggest that the Dax may once again fail to find a clear direction.

"The Dax continues to owe investors a clear trend," wrote Jochen Stanzl, market analyst at Consorsbank. After European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde recently ruled out an interest rate cut in the eurozone, investors' hopes have now shifted to more positive signals from the United States. Given the recent back-and-forth on the markets, it may be enough if Wednesday's labor market report and Friday's inflation data do not completely slam the door on further Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.

Current market expectations are that the Fed will cut key interest rates twice in 2026 to make investment and borrowing cheaper and thereby stimulate the economy. Provided that wage growth, employment, or price trends do not send conflicting signals, the expected rate path is unlikely to be called into question.

Nevertheless, equity strategist Markus Reinwand from Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba) urged caution. For some time now, there has been a significant gap between stock market valuations and the actual course of the economy. Better economic data would therefore merely confirm what equities have already priced in for months. The muted reaction to the recent strong German order intake figures is evidence of this.

Furthermore, investors are increasingly questioning whether the growth and profit expectations tied to artificial intelligence might have been somewhat exaggerated, Reinwand continued. As such, the Dax is likely to consolidate rather than make significant gains in the coming week.

According to Robert Greil, chief strategist at private bank Merck Finck, geopolitics will continue to dominate global headlines, with corresponding potential impacts on equity markets. At the same time, the expert emphasizes: "Despite all the uncertainties, attention should remain focused on the essentials, namely the world economy, which is growing somewhat more dynamically again, and the rapid developments in AI – because that is where the real action is on the stock markets."

Meanwhile, the corporate earnings season for the past year is entering a new round. The agenda is particularly packed on Wednesday and Thursday. Midweek, Dax-listed companies such as Commerzbank, energy technology group Siemens Energy, and Deutsche Börse will publish their results, with the latter reporting after the market closes.

Thursday will see results from carmaker Mercedes-Benz and technology group Siemens, which is currently in a race with software giant SAP for the title of most valuable Dax company. Investors in both SAP and Siemens are likely to pay close attention to how artificial intelligence could threaten their respective business models./la/jsl/he

--- By Lutz Alexander, dpa-AFX ---