The American stock market is in one of its contemplative moods. Prices are high, nerves are taut, and everyone seems to be waiting for a reason to feel something again. The mood isn't panic or euphoria, it's more like mild confusion.

Netflix supplied the week's most convenient symbol of disappointment. Its earnings missed forecasts, and the stock promptly fell more than 6%. Once the market’s symbol of limitless growth, it now serves as a cautionary tale about what happens when everyone already has a subscription. Texas Instruments joined the gloom, warning of weaker profits and tugging other chipmakers down with it.

Amid all this, there are still pockets of enthusiasm. AT&T delighted analysts with unexpected subscriber growth. Chubb posted a 31% rise in Q3 profit, while Capital One Financial also reported strong profit growth.

On paper, things look splendid. Roughly 87% of companies reporting this season have beaten expectations. Earnings are rising at nearly 9% year-on-year. These are the sort of figures that would once have inspired optimism. Instead, they get a polite nod, since everything is already priced for perfection.

Tesla, whose earnings are due after the close, remains the market's designated conversation piece. Its share price inched up, possibly out of habit. Investors no longer seem to expect revelations from Elon Musk, merely a few quotable sentences and a promise that everything is proceeding according to destiny.

In Washington, the drama is less entertaining. The government is still at a standstill. Policymakers will meet next week with only half their instruments working. What they know is that inflation keeps hovering around 3.1%.

Abroad, the choreography is no clearer. President Trump's uncertain meetings with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have become a diplomatic guessing game, with markets checking their watches. Every few months, someone in Washington insists that relations with Beijing are thawing, only for the temperature to drop again. Investors would prefer stability, but seem to have settled for weather updates. The latest development is that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is due to meet China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng in Malaysia, a sort of pre-meeting to a hoped-for meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.

Gold, meanwhile, has been volatile, behaving more like a risky asset rather than a haven. It plunged 6% yesterday. Oil prices have steadied on whispers of a U.S.–India deal, though traders now treat optimism as a short-term commodity.

In Asia-Pacific this morning, the outlook was mixed. Japan's Topix was up, but the Nikkei 225 remained flat. Markets were bullish in South Korea (+1%)  but bearish in Australia (-0.7%), Hong Kong (-1%) and mainland China (-0.4%). European leading indicators are mixed, and Wall Street futures remain flat.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: Japan's adjusted trade balance; the consumer price index and the harmonized consumer price index in the United Kingdom; in the United States, the DOE crude oil inventories. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99,044
  • Gold: $4,031
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $62.33 (WTI) $58.30
  • United States 10 years: 3.94%
  • BITCOIN: $107,515

In corporate news:

  • Intel will report third-quarter results amid high investor expectations following $15.9 billion in new investments from Nvidia, SoftBank, and the U.S. government, although earnings may be diluted and long-standing issues persist.
  • VinFast delivered over 120,000 electric two-wheelers in Q3, a 73% jump from Q2, driven by Hanoi's upcoming petrol bike ban, with e-bike sales up 489% year-on-year.
  • Avery Dennison beat Q3 profit expectations with $2.37 per share due to cost cuts and price hikes, and launched RFID labels with Walmart for fresh food tracking.
  • Hilton lowered its 2025 revenue per room forecast to 1% growth due to weak U.S. travel demand but raised profit and hotel expansion outlooks, driven by resilient luxury travel.
  • Northern Trust exceeded Q3 earnings expectations as rebounding markets boosted its fee income and assets under management, which rose 9% year-on-year to $1.77 trillion.
  • Ford is recalling 1.45 million U.S. vehicles over faulty rear-view cameras and extending warranties on millions more, following safety probes and a prior $165 million penalty.
  • Tesla is expected to report strong Q3 results, fueled by a rush to use expiring U.S. EV tax credits, though investor focus will be on margins and progress on robotaxis.
  • Moody's raised its annual earnings forecast, citing strong analytics demand and robust bond issuance, with expected adjusted profit per share now between $14.50 and $14.75.
  • Novavax is selling a Maryland facility and nearby property for $60 million in deals closing January 2026, part of a cost-saving strategy expected to generate $230 million in savings.
  • Uber rebranded its "Green" service to "Electric" and launched a $4,000 EV incentive for U.S. drivers, aiming to accelerate its zero-emission target by 2040.
  • AT&T added 405,000 wireless subscribers in Q3, surpassing estimates, thanks to bundled services and iPhone promotions, while securing a $23 billion spectrum deal.
  • Teck Resources beat profit estimates with higher metals prices and said its merger with Anglo American remains on track to create a top copper producer.
  • Texas Instruments shares fell over 8% after Q4 guidance missed expectations, citing a slow recovery in analog chip demand amid tariff uncertainty.
  • Chubb posted a 31% rise in Q3 profit due to lower catastrophe losses and higher investment income, with record underwriting income and an improved combined ratio of 81.8%.
  • Warner Bros Discovery rejected a nearly $60 billion acquisition offer from Paramount, but is now exploring alternatives including a full or partial sale or separation of units.
  • Netflix faces reduced operating margins due to a $619 million tax expense in Brazil, despite revenue growth.
  • Capital One Financial reported strong profit growth in Q3 2025, driven by robust interest income from credit card debt.
  • Intuitive Surgical reported strong Q3 earnings, surpassing expectations due to high demand for its surgical robots.
  • Mattel's Q3 earnings revealed missed sales estimates due to a decline in North American sales.
  • Public Policy Holding Company has filed for an IPO in the United States.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • 3M Company: Morgan Stanley upgrades to market weight from underweight with a price target raised from USD 130 to USD 160.
  • Gartner, Inc.: Barclays downgrades to market weight from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 320 to USD 270.
  • Halliburton Company: HSBC upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 23 to USD 30.
  • Hologic, Inc.: JP Morgan downgrades to neutral from overweight and reduces the target price from USD 80 to USD 78.
  • Hyatt Hotels Corporation: Morgan Stanley upgrades to overweight from equalwt with a price target raised from USD 147 to USD 168.
  • Kinetik Holdings Inc.: Wolfe Research upgrades to outperform from peerperform with a target price of USD 45.
  • Paccar, Inc.: Wolfe Research upgrades to peerperform from underperform.
  • Royal Gold, Inc.: Zacks upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from USD 214 to USD 224.
  • W.r. Berkley Corporation: BMO Capital Markets downgrades to underperform from market perform with a target price of USD 64.
  • Caci International Inc: Cantor Fitzgerald maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 535 to USD 675.
  • Dutch Bros Inc.: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 92 to USD 65.
  • General Motors Company: Daiwa Securities maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 50 to USD 65.
  • Nextracker Inc.: Wolfe Research maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 73 to USD 97.
  • Sandisk Corporation: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 60 to USD 180.
  • Seagate Technology Holdings Plc: Fox Advisors LLC maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 185 to USD 245.
  • Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc.: BMO Capital Markets maintains its market perform recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 170 to USD 120.
  • Tempus Ai, Inc.: Piper Sandler & Co maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 70 to USD 105.
  • Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc.: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 19 to USD 23.
  • Western Digital Corporation: Fox Advisors LLC maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 95 to USD 140.
  • Yeti Holdings, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 53 to USD 70.