Wall Street began the week in a cautious but upward mood. Futures ticked higher in the early hours, as if traders had decided to suspend their disbelief about Washington long enough to place a few optimistic bets. The Dow futures rose by 04%, the S&P gained about half a percent, and the Nasdaq surged 0.7%. For a Monday morning, that is considered enthusiasm.

The impression that the Wall Street rally had overstayed its welcome last week dissolved almost as quickly as it had appeared. By Friday, indices had bounced after three sessions of retreat. The S&P 500's record high of 6,699 points on Tuesday was impressive, though it came with the uneasy sense that the climb had been a little too steep for comfort. Europe, meanwhile, displayed surprising poise: the Stoxx Europe 600, the CAC 40, and the DAX all closed higher. September, a month with a reputation for stock market gloom, seems intent on proving that traditions, like rules, are occasionally there to be broken.

The backdrop, however, is one of studied unease. Republicans and Democrats are once again at an impasse over federal funding. The failure to reach agreement threatens to shut down the government just as the 2026 fiscal year begins. It is a peculiar national ritual: lawmakers manufacturing crisis precisely on schedule, as though the chaos were part of the budgetary process itself.

The consequences extend beyond the familiar images of closed parks and unpaid staff. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, lacking funds, could be prevented from publishing its monthly employment or inflation reports. In a data-obsessed financial world, this amounts to flying blind. The Federal Reserve, committed to making "data-dependent" decisions, would suddenly be deprived of the very information it insists upon. 

In the absence of reliable numbers, the central bank is left to rely on speeches, and there are many of them. On Monday alone, Cleveland's Beth Hammack, New York's John Williams, St. Louis's Alberto Musalem, Atlanta's Raphael Bostic, and Governor Christopher Waller are scheduled to speak. Hammack has already stressed the need for "restrictive monetary policy" to contain inflation. 

Other data releases are still scheduled, including pending home sales from the National Association of Realtors. The housing sector, weary under high mortgage rates, is unlikely to provide cheer.

Cannabis companies spiked in premarket trading after President Trump praised hemp-derived cannabidiol. Electronic Arts rose nearly 15%, Merus NV soared almost forty after a Danish firm agreed to acquire it for $8 billion, and MoonLake Immunotherapeutics collapsed by nearly 90% after its drug trial disappointed.

Elsewhere, the global chessboard is alive with moves: Xi Jinping reportedly pressing Trump for a concession on Taiwan, Europe fretting about drones, Moldova leaning toward Brussels, and OPEC+ preparing for its next oil decision. Meanwhile, Fitch and Moody's nudged Spain's credit rating higher.

In the Asia-Pacific markets, Japan's Nikkei 225 started the week down 0.9% on profit-taking after record highs and the technical impact of numerous dividend payments. Elsewhere, green dominated, particularly in Australia (+0.8%), India (+0.4%) and South Korea (+1.5%). In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng gained 1.8%, buoyed by positive industrial indicators in China (a jump in Chinese industrial profits in August, the first in four months) and government support measures for the precious metals and rare earths industry. China's Golden Week begins on Wednesday, which means that mainland Chinese markets will be closed from October 1 to October 8 inclusive. In Hong Kong, the market will be closed on October 1 and 7 but will remain open on other days.

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: Eurozone economic confidence; in the United States, pending home sales. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 97,815
  • Gold: $3,815
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $67.87 (WTI) $64.32
  • United States 10 years: 4.15%
  • BITCOIN: $112,130

In corporate news:

  • Electronic Arts is reportedly preparing to go private in a deal valued at around $50 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal.
  • Occidental Petroleum is in talks to sell its OxyChem division for at least $10 billion, according to the Financial Times.
  • The FAA is expected to ease delivery restrictions on Boeing, based on multiple consistent reports.
  • Merus NV soared almost forty after a Danish firm agreed to acquire it for $8 billion
  • Apple is developing a ChatGPT-style app to test a new version of Siri, according to Bloomberg.
  • Donald Trump is pressuring Microsoft to fire Lisa Monaco, a top executive in charge of government affairs, due to her previous role as U.S. Deputy Attorney General.
  • Sikorsky, a unit of Lockheed Martin, received a five-year contract to build 99 CH-53K heavy-lift helicopters for the U.S. Marine Corps.
  • General Dynamics announced that its Electric Boat division has secured $642 million for work on Virginia-class submarines.
  • Chevron's subsidiary Noble Energy has reached an agreement with Equatorial Guinea on the Aseng gas monetization project, moving closer to a final investment decision.
  • MoonLake Immunotherapeutics collapsed by nearly 90% after its drug trial disappointed.
  • Lockheed Martin's Sikorsky unit secured a $10.9 billion contract from the US Navy to supply up to 99 CH-53K King Stallion helicopters through 2034.
  • Omnicom and Interpublic finalized a consent agreement with the FTC regarding their planned merger, affirming their commitment to unbiased media placement advice.
  • Oracle announced its banking payment systems are now Swift-compatible, enhancing their appeal to financial institutions seeking compliance and interoperability.
  • Biogen and Eisai received approval in China for a once-monthly maintenance dosing schedule of their Alzheimer's drug Leqembi.
  • BridgeBio Pharma reported its drug acoramidis significantly reduced deaths and hospitalizations in cardiomyopathy patients within one month of treatment.
  • Keysight Technologies received Chinese regulatory approval for its acquisition of Spirent Communications, bringing the deal closer to completion.
  • Alnylam Pharmaceuticals said its drug Amvuttra reduced gastrointestinal side effects in cardiomyopathy patients in a phase 3 trial.
  • ByteDance is expected to retain ownership of TikTok's U.S. operations under a new joint venture, while giving up control of its data, algorithm, and content.
  • Investcorp Capital sold its stake in a U.S. industrial real estate portfolio.

Analyst Recommendations:

  • American Express Company: Morgan Stanley maintains equalwt with a price target raised from USD 311 to USD 362.
  • Carmax, Inc.: Seaport Global downgrades to neutral from buy.
  • Electronic Arts Inc.: Freedom Capital Markets downgrades to hold from buy and raises the target price from USD 185 to USD 195.
  • Exxon Mobil Corporation: Gerdes Energy Research LLC downgrades to neutral from buy with a target price of USD 128.
  • Transocean Ltd.: Arctic Securities upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 2.50 to USD 3.50.
  • Us Bancorp: Morgan Stanley downgrades to market weight from overweight and raises the target price from USD 52 to USD 56.
  • Wells Fargo & Company: Morgan Stanley downgrades to market weight from overweight and raises the target price from USD 87 to USD 95.
  • Ciena Corporation: Wolfe Research maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 150 to USD 190.
  • Oracle Corporation: Arete Research maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 188 to USD 255.
  • Rivian Automotive, Inc.: Goldman Sachs maintains its neutral recommendation and raises the target price from USD 12 to USD 15.
  • Thor Industries, Inc.: Wolfe Research maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 100 to USD 123.
  • Transocean Ltd.: Arctic Securities upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 2.50 to USD 3.50.