U.S. stock futures pointed higher before the open, with the Nasdaq leading the move, helped by strength in chipmakers. Marvell, Micron, Intel, and Qualcomm all rose in early trading. That's because demand tied to data centers and AI infrastructure is still strong and earnings have also been better than expected. With the reporting season nearly over, first-quarter earnings growth is now expected to be about 29% from a year earlier, far above the 16.1% expected a month ago, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters.

Still, the optimism has a fragile quality. Oil remains the obvious pressure point. Brent crude, which had dropped sharply on hopes of progress toward a deal involving Iran and the reopening of shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz, rebounded about 2% this morning to around $98. Washington and Tehran both seem to be signaling progress, with Trump saying talks are going "nicely" and Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggesting a deal could take a few days. Iran, meanwhile, is reportedly seeking the release of $24 billion in frozen funds. But recent U.S. strikes in southern Iran, including against missile launch sites and vessels said to be involved in mine-laying, are a reminder that anything can happen.

The broader point is that the AI trade is no longer just an American story. Taiwan's stock market, heavy with technology companies, has overtaken India in market value. South Korea recently moved ahead of the UK and rose strongly today. Behind the still-dominant U.S. market, the global equity map is being redrawn around chips, foundries, servers, and data centers. Europe, by contrast, has only one company among the world's top 20 by market value: ASML. Add Roche, and it has two in the top 40. That says a lot about where investors think the future is being built.

In other news, the Fed also faces a quieter but important fight over bank supervision. According to sources quoted by Reuters, Wall Street banks are pushing the central bank to make recent changes to oversight harder for future administrations to reverse. The issue centers on "matters requiring attention," or MRAs, a tool supervisors use to force banks to fix risk and control problems. Under the new approach led by Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, MRAs would be reserved for more serious financial risks, while softer "observations" would be used for less urgent concerns.

Banks argue that supervisors have used MRAs too often, distracting management with minor issues. They point to Silicon Valley Bank, which had 19 open MRAs before its collapse, many of which did not focus on the core problems that brought it down. Critics counter that moving too far toward informal observations could weaken safeguards, especially when the global economy is already facing political, inflationary, and market stress.

Today's U.S. consumer confidence data will be closely watched by investors. Higher gasoline prices tend to make households feel worse about the economy, even when their portfolios look better. In corporate news, Joyy jumped after reporting better-than-expected first-quarter revenue. Pony AI climbed after announcing plans to expand its robotaxi fleet. 

Today's economic highlights:

On today's agenda: the CBI Distributive Trades in the United Kingdom; In the United States, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price YoY, the CB Consumer Confidence, and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index. See the full calendar here.

  • Dollar index: 99.100
  • Gold: $4,515
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): $98.79 (WTI) $92.53
  • United States 10 years: 4.48%
  • BITCOIN: $77,052

In corporate news:

  • IBM signed a five-year agreement to modernize Abertis' technology infrastructure, including migration to SAP software and new mobile payment/account-management apps.
  • Eli Lilly said its experimental gene-editing therapy VERVE-102 reduced LDL cholesterol and PCSK9 levels in an early-stage study, with a phase 2 trial planned by year-end.
  • Uber Technologies proposed acquiring Delivery Hero for €33 per share after increasing its stake in the company to 19.5%.
  • Boeing was reportedly found not guilty in a lawsuit accusing it of hiding 737 MAX safety issues from LOT Polish Airlines.
  • Regeneron Pharmaceuticals plans to launch a global capability centre in Hyderabad, India.
  • 26 US semiconductor companies, including Qualcomm and Nvidia, saw their revenue in China rise by an average of 20% year-on-year in 2025, according to Hurun Research.
  • The EU is preparing a record fine against Google for breaching the Digital Rights Act.
  • Starbucks suffers a sharp drop in sales in Korea following the marketing backlash over ‘Tank Day'.
  • The Korean consumer electronics union is taking legal action to block the vote on the Samsung Electronics pay deal.
  • Today's key earnings reports: AutoZone, Zscaler

Analyst Recommendations: