MUNICH (dpa-AFX) - The war in Iran has provided German solar companies with an unexpected surge in orders. The war-driven spike in oil and gas prices has caused demand from private homeowners for rooftop photovoltaic systems to skyrocket, according to reports from the German Solar Association (BSW) and individual firms. A secondary factor is the planned reduction in solar subsidies proposed by Federal Economy Minister Katharina Reiche (CDU).

'Due to the energy crisis and consumer fears regarding potential subsidy cuts, we are seeing signs of a solar windfall,' says Carsten Koernig, Managing Director of the German Solar Association. This trend was already visible in new installations in April: compared to the previous year, newly installed PV capacity in the residential segment rose by four percent to 0.33 gigawatt-peak, according to association calculations based on the Federal Network Agency's market master data register.

In previous months, the figures had trended significantly downward: from January to the end of April, new solar systems with a capacity of 1.24 gigawatt-peak were installed on private rooftops, representing a 16 percent decline compared to the same period last year.

Order boom for installers

Even when order books are thin, it usually takes at least several weeks from the time an order is placed until a new PV system is commissioned. Therefore, politically driven effects - whether from the Iran war or planned subsidy cuts - are better reflected in new orders and customer inquiries than in the Federal Agency's lagging data. And these figures have risen even more sharply.

'Since the outbreak of the Iran war, demand for solar energy and heat pumps has exploded,' says Mario Kohle, founder and CEO of the nationwide installer Enpal. The Berlin-based company felt the impact almost immediately after the war began on February 28: in March and April, customers ordered new PV systems worth 250 million euros, an increase of 60 million euros or over 30 percent compared to a year earlier. Enpal views the war as the primary driver but assumes that the federal government's announcements regarding the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) are also having an impact.

'Since the start of the Iran conflict, we have seen a very significant increase in demand for solar systems, particularly among private customers, but also among business clients,' adds Filip Thon, CEO of Eon Energie Deutschland. Private customer inquiries have more than doubled since then, both compared to previous months and year-on-year. 'This cannot be explained by purely seasonal effects.'

Planned end of feed-in tariffs also plays a role

According to a recent Statista survey of 2,000 homeowners commissioned by the company, Eon assumes that ending feed-in tariffs would dampen demand for photovoltaics among private homeowners but not bring it to a standstill. Around three-quarters of people planning a solar system for their home could imagine purchasing one even without a fixed feed-in tariff. 'Only four percent would definitely not make the investment, ten percent probably not, and twelve percent are undecided,' says Thon.

A policy-induced windfall is generally not sustainable. The German Solar Association laments the inconsistency in German energy policy: 'Regulatory uncertainties are poison for medium- and long-term investment appetite,' says Managing Director Koernig. The association is therefore appealing to the federal government to scrap the planned cuts and establish a reliable subsidy framework. 'Otherwise, demand for solar rooftops will collapse massively next year.'/cho/DP/zb