BERLIN/TEL AVIV/CAIRO (dpa-AFX) - War, travel warnings, closed airspaces: The conflict in the Middle East is also shaking up the holiday plans of many people. Nevertheless, the majority of Germans are leaving their plans unchanged for now. In a survey by the opinion research institute YouGov commissioned by the Deutsche Presse-Agentur, 54 percent of the approximately 1,750 adults surveyed in March said that international crises or conflicts currently have no influence on their holiday planning.
However, geopolitical tensions are not entirely without consequences. Ten percent intend to change their holiday plans due to international conflicts. For seven percent, a booked trip has become uncertain, and for four percent, it was cancelled or postponed.
Political stability as a travel factor
Safety plays an important role for many holidaymakers when choosing a travel destination. 58 percent say they take the political stability of a country strongly into account, and a further 27 percent at least partially. Only one in ten states that political stability plays no role for them.
The conflict in the Middle East escalated at the end of February. Israel and the USA attacked Iran from the air, and Tehran responded with counter-attacks on Israel as well as targets in the Gulf region. As a result, thousands of travellers were stranded there - for example at airports or on cruise ships.
War hits holiday countries
The consultancy firm Oxford Economics expects that the number of travellers to the Middle East could drop significantly this year. Should the war last for about another two weeks, visitor numbers could fall by around eleven percent. If the conflict drags on for one to two months, a decline of as much as 27 percent would be possible - associated with economic losses of around 56 billion dollars.
The Gulf states in particular fear for their image as safe travel destinations. "The seal is broken," Qatari analyst Ahmed Hilal told the broadcaster Al Jazeera. Metropolises such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi or Doha were long considered safe islands. After attacks on airports, hotels and densely populated areas, it could take time before they regain this status.
Tourism also suffers in Israel
In Israel and the Palestinian territories, tourism has already been suffering heavy losses since the Hamas massacre of October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Gaza war. The new war with Iran is now dealing the industry another blow.
According to the Israeli Ministry of Tourism, thousands of tourists have left the country since the start of the war - for example by bus via Jordan or Egypt. Others are being looked after by the Ministry. For several days, holidaymakers have also been able to book flights with Israeli airlines to get to safety.
Concerns far from the front
But even countries that are not directly attacked are anxious about their guests. Egypt, for example, one of the most popular travel destinations for German holidaymakers, is heavily dependent on income from tourism. Political unrest, terrorist attacks and the Corona pandemic had repeatedly caused visitor numbers there to collapse.
Recently, however, the industry had recovered. The official opening of the Grand Egyptian Museum at the pyramids provided additional momentum: last year, around 19 million visitors came to Egypt - a growth of 21 percent compared to the previous year. But now Egypt travellers are also wondering whether they should rather spend their holiday elsewhere.
Short memory of holidaymakers
According to tourism researchers, such fluctuations are nothing unusual in the travel business. "Basically, tourists have a short memory," said the President of the German Society for Tourism Science, Jürgen Schmude. "As a rule, we see such waves of demand for two to three years. After that, things often return to normal."
Whether a conflict damages the image of a destination in the long term depends primarily on its duration. "The longer it lasts, the greater the consequences," said Schmude. Egypt, for example, has experienced several attacks in the past and has nevertheless always returned as a travel destination. If the conflict in the Middle East ends quickly, the effects on tourism could be largely forgotten after just six months.
Tour operators observe restraint
For trips to countries in the Gulf region and for connecting flights via hubs such as Dubai or Doha, the travel group Tui is observing restraint in bookings. For the region, a phase of recovery is initially expected. "Experience shows that the affected destinations do everything they can to quickly stimulate tourism again and regain the trust of travellers," the company stated.
In contrast, demand for Egypt remains stable. Numerous bookings have already been received in recent weeks. The country has also increasingly established itself as a fixed feature for summer holidays, Tui reported.
According to the industry's number two, Dertour, Egypt remains in demand, but there is currently a certain restraint as well as occasional cancellation requests. However, the classic seaside regions are not affected by the Iran war, and Egyptian airspace is also open. At the same time, demand for classic holiday destinations in the western Mediterranean, such as Spain, is rising.
Industry considered crisis-proof
"Tourism is a very resilient industry - as soon as stability returns, people's desire to travel also returns," said the President of the German Travel Association (DRV), Albin Loidl. In such situations, many holidaymakers tend to switch to other destinations instead of giving up on a trip altogether. After crises, the industry usually finds its way back onto the track quickly. Loidl also expects a recovery for the Gulf region as soon as the situation calms down.
Federal Government looks at tourism
The tourism industry is heavily affected by travel cancellations, said the Federal Government's tourism coordinator, Christoph Ploß (CDU). "The situation in the Gulf region also has an impact on other holiday regions, such as in Asia and Africa, because many connections lead through the hubs in the Gulf region."
However, experience from previous crises shows that travellers often return as soon as a travel destination is perceived as safe again, Ploß said. It is the task of the countries to ensure the safety of travellers. He has great confidence that the Gulf states take this responsibility seriously./kge/DP/zb
