Good morning. It's January 5, 2026 and no world leader was forcibly brought to the United States so far - well, none after Nicolás Maduro, who was captured on January 3 in Venezuela by Washington to stand trial on drug-related charges.

The US has thus staged a spectacular demonstration of its ability to reshape global affairs, in a way not seen for decades. Donald Trump has declared that Venezuela will henceforth be governed by his administration, without specifying the precise contours of that engagement. His Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, brought some clarity, emphasising that the US intends to use the oil lever - Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven reserves, though its oil infrastructure is in tatters - to align Caracas’s interests with those of Washington.

This intervention marks a deliberate break by the White House from the post-1945 geopolitical rulebook. It adds yet another layer of complexity to an international landscape already thick with uncertainty since last year. Financial markets absorbed the news with relative composure. Politically, however, the move is unlikely to ease divisions within the American populace.

Globally, the episode redraws the definitions of "impossible", "possible", and "probable". Countries such as Canada, Panama and Denmark - where Donald Trump is rumoured to have territorial ambitions - find themselves in a new paradigm. Mexico could also find itself in Washington’s crosshairs, owing to what are seen as lax drug and immigration policies. Beyond that, the Venezuelan playbook may well serve as a model for future interventions.

China and Taiwan naturally come to mind. Chinese social media has been abuzz with commentary on the matter since the day before yesterday. China itself, along with Russia, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, has formally condemned the seizure of Maduro.

As always, it is wise not to jump to conclusions. But for those still in doubt, the post-World War II international order is dead, and the United States has revived the Melian Dialogue. In the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides recounts how the people of Melos sought to save themselves by appealing to Athenian justice, only to be massacred for refusing to yield. The Athenians maintained that justice exists only among equals; where power is asymmetrical, the strong do as they will, and the weak submit, regardless of the rules. Ring a bell?

While the Venezuelan affair is dominating headlines, financial markets remain preoccupied with their end-2025 fixations. Will the Fed cut rates? Will AI continue to fuel stock market gains and bolster the US economy? Will the war in Ukraine come to an end? For the record, equities surged last year, alongside other asset classes like silver, gold and industrial metals (we provided a summary here).

Now, onto the key developments to watch this week:

  • Two major events are expected shortly in the United States. First, the Supreme Court ruling on Donald Trump’s tariff regime, with a possible declaration of unconstitutionality. Second, the announcement of the next Federal Reserve chair.
  • OPEC+ has confirmed its intention to maintain oil supply at current levels for Q1.
  • The attack on Berlin’s power grid has been attributed by authorities to “left-wing extremists”.
  • Macro diary for the week: January inflation figures for France and Germany are due Tuesday, followed by the US ISM Services Index on Wednesday. On Friday, attention will shift to the US December jobs report and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for January. Traders currently see an 83% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady at 3.50–3.75% at its 28 January meeting. The outcome of the following meeting on 18 March is less clear-cut, with FedWatch tool data showing a 52% probability of a hold and 48% for a rate cut.
  • Corporate calendar: This week marks a lull in earnings releases, but the season kicks off in earnest on Tuesday 13 January with quarterly results from JPMorgan Chase and Bank of New York Mellon.

The year’s second trading session (for the latecomers, the first was on Friday) is flashing green across the Asia-Pacific region—at least in tech-heavy markets. Tech stocks are powering Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 3%, Taiwan’s TAIEX up 2.6%, and South Korea’s KOSPI also up 3.4%. Australia, India and Hong Kong are struggling to keep pace, eking out modest gains. European futures look more upbeat, pointing to a higher open.

Today's economic highlights:

See the full calendar here.

  • GBP / USD: US$1.34
  • Gold: US$4,419.32
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): US$60.28
  • United States 10 years: 4.18%
  • BITCOIN: US$92,512.5

In corporate news:

  • Oakley Capital acquires a majority stake in GLAS for £1 billion.
  • Bridgepoint acquires an £800 million stake in Interpath Advisory.
  • Bilia declares a dividend of 1.40 SEK per share, yielding 4.2% at a share price of 132.80 SEK.
  • Intellego cancels a 22 million euro order from MoveoMed after a forensic investigation.
  • Munters downgraded to Hold by DNB Carnegie with a target price of 205 SEK.
  • Alleima target price reduced to 79 kr by Pareto Securities, maintaining a hold rating.
  • Afry target price reduced to 230 SEK by DNB, maintaining a buy rating.
  • Hexagon target price reduced to 130 SEK by DNB, maintaining a buy rating.
  • Equinor seeks court injunction to continue Empire Wind project amid US directive.
  • Walt Disney's "Avatar: Fire and Ash" surpasses $1 billion in global ticket sales.
  • Sanofi receives FDA priority review for Tzield therapy expansion for young children.

See more news from UK listed companies here

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Flutter Entertainment Plc: Citizens maintains its market outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 311 to USD 313.
  • Wh Smith Plc: Deutsche Bank maintains its hold recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 650 to GBX 600.
  • Ibstock Plc: Deutsche Bank downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from GBX 190 to GBX 144.
  • Mony Group Plc: Investec maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 275 to GBX 265.
  • Johnson Matthey Plc: Berenberg upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from GBX 2050 to GBX 2550.
  • Pan African Resources Plc: Vunani Securities (Pty) Ltd maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from ZAR 21.60 to ZAR 30.40.
  • Intertek Group Plc: BNP Paribas downgrades to neutral from outperform and reduces the target price from GBX 5900 to GBX 5200.
  • Bunzl Plc: BNP Paribas downgrades to neutral from outperform and reduces the target price from GBX 2950 to GBX 2350.
  • Experian Plc: BNP Paribas maintains its outperform recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 4650 to GBX 4500.
  • Marks & Spencer Group Plc: BNP Paribas maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 11.50 to USD 11.70.
  • Rentokil Initial Plc: BNP Paribas maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from USD 29.96 to USD 36.72.
  • Next Plc: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 120 to GBP 134.
  • Standard Chartered Plc: CICC maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from HKD 175 to HKD 213.26.
  • Hsbc Holdings Plc: CICC maintains its outperform recommendation and raises the target price from HKD 111.90 to HKD 136.80.