Economists do not expect signals of coming interest rate increases, as unemployment remains elevated, although inflation shows signs of picking up again.
Malaysia
Malaysia will release January's inflation data Thursday and trade data on Friday.
Headline inflation likely eased to 1.5% from 1.6% in December 2025, partly due to lower retail fuel prices, Barclays said. Core inflation is also expected to slow to 2.0% from 2.3%, as the base effect from a one-off dip in December 2024 for other information and communication services costs fades, it added.
January export growth likely remained firm on strong tech demand, although the trade surplus is expected to have narrowed, Barclays said. Export momentum may continue this year, supported by steady global and regional growth, U.S. tariff developments and resilient electrical and electronics shipments, with semiconductor trends a key focus, said RHB senior economist Chin Yee Sian.
Singapore
Singapore will release January non-oil domestic exports data on Monday, with exports expected to have risen 10.8% on year in January, according to a WSJ poll of five economists. That would exceed December's 6.1% increase. Barclays expects tech demand to support exports.
Thailand
Thailand will release fourth-quarter and full-year gross domestic product data Monday.
The economy likely grew 1.3% on year, according to a WSJ poll of six economists, which would be higher than 1.2% growth in the third quarter. Growth likely improved in the fourth quarter on sequential improvement in tourists arrivals, manufacturing production and government spending, Barclays said.
Indonesia
Bank Indonesia is expected to hold interest rates steady on Thursday and is likely to focus on the effectiveness of policy transmission while keeping the door open for further rate cuts, UOB said.
Reflecting this shift, UOB has delayed its rate-cut forecast to the first half of 2026. It expects Bank Indonesia to resume easing with a 25-basis-point cut in March, followed by a final 25-basis-point cut in the second quarter, bringing the policy rate to a terminal level of 4.25%.
Philippines
The Philippine central bank will announce its rate decision Thursday, with ANZ economists expecting a cut. "An easing move would help stabilize domestic demand without jeopardizing external stability, particularly as the [peso's] near-term pressures are driven more by global [dollar] dynamics than by domestic imbalances," ANZ said.
Although the possibility of an interest rate cut cannot be ruled out, UOB maintains the view that BSP can afford to remain patient. The January headline and core inflation readings may signal an early stage of reflation amid a gradual recovery in domestic demand, UOB noted.
Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas said that its current monetary easing cycle is nearing an end at its last meeting, and that any additional easing will likely be limited.
Any references to days are in local times.
Write to Jessica Fleetham at jessica.fleetham@wsj.com and Jihye Lee at jihye.lee@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
02-16-26 0314ET
