By Dow Jones Newswires staff
Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting December 1.
U.S. ISM surveys on manufacturing and services activity, plus the latest ADP private payrolls, will be watched closely for confirmation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates at its next meeting.
In Europe, eurozone inflation data will attract investors' attention, while Asia sees a slate of growth and inflation data, alongside regional purchasing managers' surveys.
U.S.
The U.S. shutdown has ended, but official data remain sparse, with key jobs and inflation figures not due to be released until after the Federal Reserve's next decision on Dec. 10.
This will leave investors looking to private data for confirmation that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates at the upcoming meeting. Most market commentators expect a rate cut, but it isn't yet considered a done deal. U.S. money markets currently price around an 80% chance of a rate reduction.
ISM surveys for November for manufacturing on Monday and services on Wednesday, as well as the ADP private payrolls figures for November on Monday, will be closely watched. Any signs of weakness in the job market or in economic activity would add to prospects of a rate cut.
"Following recent comments from key officials and a mixed jobs report, the market is back to strongly anticipating a third consecutive 25 basis-point rate cut," ING economist James Knightley said in a note.
"The upcoming data is likely to reinforce that view with the ISM manufacturing index set to remain in contraction territory and the ISM services index set to move closer to neutral based on regional survey evidence."
U.S. PCE data for September are released on Friday and will also attract attention.
"[Recent] soft core CPI and PPI reports suggest that tariffs continue to have more bark than bite with regard to inflation, and this should also be reflected in this week's September core PCE deflator," Knightley said.
Canada
Canadian labor data for November are released on Friday.
These follow better-than-expected Canadian gross domestic product figures and, if solid, should confirm that the Bank of Canada is likely to leave interest rates on hold on Dec. 10.
Canadian money markets price an 84% chance that the central bank will hold rates at 2.25% at the upcoming meeting, LSEG data show.
Eurozone
Flash estimate inflation data for the eurozone are "eagerly awaited" on Tuesday, say DZ Bank analysts in a note. "Will price pressures ease, giving the European Central Bank room for further interest rate cuts in December?," they ask. Money markets, however, almost fully rule out this scenario, according to LSEG data.
Manufacturing purchasing managers' surveys from Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the eurozone are due Monday, followed by services PMIs on Wednesday, all for November.
Unemployment data from Spain for November, from Italy for October and the eurozone also for October are due on Tuesday. Germany will release manufacturing orders for October, while France and Spain will publish October's industrial production figures on Friday.
Final third-quarter GDP data for the eurozone are due on Friday alongside employment figures for the same quarter.
Germany will auction December 2027 Schatz on Tuesday, while Spain and France will hold auctions on Thursday.
U.K.
U.K. investors will turn their attention back to data after the recent budget announcement sparked relief among investors as it leaves the government with a solid fiscal buffer.
Top-tier U.K. data is thin on the ground in the coming week, with focus on mortgage and credit data for October on Monday. Nationwide's November house price survey is also due that day, while the final estimates of U.K. purchasing managers' surveys for manufacturing and services are released on Monday and Wednesday, respectively.
"The lending data and Nationwide survey could "show a softening in housing market conditions, as affordability concerns may have mounted ahead of Wednesday's budget, dampening demand," Investec economist Lottie Gosling said in a note.
The U.K. plans to sell August 2031 index-linked gilts on Tuesday and May 2029 gilts on Wednesday.
Poland
Poland's central bank announces a rate decision on Wednesday.
ING analyst Adam Antoniak expects another 25 basis-point reduction in Poland's key interest rate to 4% due to "clear signs of ongoing disinflation."
Scandinavia
Denmark, Sweden and Norway have bond auctions scheduled on Wednesday.
Japan
Investors will look for clues on the timing of the Bank of Japan's next interest-rate increase when Gov. Kazuo Ueda delivers a speech Monday in Nagoya, central Japan.
Ueda's speech comes in focus after the economy saw resilient factory activity and consumption despite headwinds from U.S. trade policies, with inflation suggesting that conditions for the Bank of Japan to resume monetary tightening are being met.
Persistent inflation, plus a tight labor market, suggest that "the Bank of Japan will resume its tightening cycle over the next couple of months," said Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics.
Indicators of consumer demand--auto sales for November and household spending for October--are due Monday and Friday, respectively. The Ministry of Finance is scheduled to auction 2.6 trillion yen in 10-year Japanese government bonds on Tuesday and 700 billion yen in 30-year bonds on Thursday.
Australia
Australia's third-quarter GDP data on Wednesday will be the highlight of the week. Economists are expected to follow the report with warnings about shrinking spare capacity, rising inflation risks and a likely end to the Reserve Bank of Australia's easing cycle after just three cuts.
Some prominent economists, including Sally Auld, chief economist at National Australia Bank, have already cautioned that the RBA's narrative could shift toward rate increases as early as the first half of 2026. The RBA has highlighted the risk of becoming "boxed in" by limited spare capacity, a tight labor market and a recovering economy.
Still, the Australian economy is far from overheating. Growth remains modest, with this year's recovery starting from a reasonably solid base.
Weak productivity growth will also be a key theme, as attention turns back to Canberra amid hopes for a reform agenda aimed at further supporting economic growth.
China
Gauges of manufacturing and services activity will be the main focus in China, as observers look for signs of strength in an economy weighed down by tariffs and weak consumption.
Official purchasing managers surveys on Sunday, which also cover construction activity, will show if the gloom in China's sprawling manufacturing sector extended into November. The prior PMI print showed a broad-based slowdown in activity, led by a plunge in exports orders. Other recent data has been discouraging too, with industrial profits tumbling in October in a sign of weak corporate profitability.
The official PMI readings will be followed by a private gauge of manufacturing on Monday, and of services on Wednesday.
Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expect the official manufacturing PMI to have edged up to 49.3 in November from 49.0 in October. That would mark a slight improvement but continue signaling a contraction in activity.
The non-manufacturing PMI likely inched down to 50.0 in November from 50.1 in October, Goldman Sachs economists expect. "Construction activity may remain subdued, partly due to slower fiscal spending."
It forecasts a flat result for the RatingDog manufacturing PMI, expecting the headline figure for November to stay above the neutral mark at 50.6. The services PMI probably stayed broadly unchanged due to a continued drag from the property sector, GS said.
India
India's central-bank rate decision is due Friday, Dec. 5. The Reserve bank of India may deliver a final 25-basis-point cut in its current easing cycle, ANZ Research said.
Without a trade deal, downside risks persist, keeping growth below potential and giving the RBI a strong, justifiable case to use the policy space provided by record-low inflation, ANZ said.
The central bank is also unlikely to hold off on cuts to support the rupee, which has been depreciating against the U.S. dollar, said Shilan Shah of Capital Economics. It "has plenty of ammunition in the form of FX reserves if it feels the need to intervene further," the economist said.
Regional Asian PMIs
A batch of Asian PMIs is due Monday, with surveys for Japan, Taiwan and India set to show how manufacturers are coping with tariff pressures midway through the final quarter of year.
Recent readings show that weak demand in major trading economies continues to weigh on sentiment. Still, conditions have diverged across the region, with tech-related demand and exports largely outperforming non-tech sectors.
"This serves as a reminder that any slowdown in AI growth will have a detrimental impact on the economies in North Asia, especially South Korea and Taiwan," said the ANZ Research team.
Southeast Asia CPI
Indonesia will release October's trade and November inflation data Monday.
Export growth is expected to soften in October as palm oil prices decline, though steady demand from China should provide some support, said Kenanga Investment Bank economist Muhammad Saifuddin Sapuan. The trade surplus is likely to remain high and close to recent levels, he added.
Indonesia's inflation trends are likely to support the central bank's easing bias, ANZ said, with the primary limitation being the need to maintain rupiah stability. ANZ expects November inflation at 2.7%, down from 2.9% in October, amid softer volatile food inflation, with core inflation likely holding steady.
Thailand's consumer prices are expected to have remained in deflation for November, with headline inflation likely remaining in contraction, reflecting subdued demand and low energy prices, ANZ Research said.
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11-28-25 1139ET
