(new: AI concerns, Bloomberg report on this)

FRANKFURT (dpa-AFX) - After the US Federal Reserve's early Christmas present in the form of another interest rate cut, investors are hoping for a continuation of the recent stock market rally in the last full trading week before Christmas. This could turn December's good run into the much-cited year-end rally. However, concerns about the profitability of the billions invested by many tech companies in artificial intelligence, which resurfaced shortly before the weekend, could provide headwinds. In addition, important US economic data will be released in the new week.

According to market observer Jürgen Molnar from broker Robomarkets, the DAX remains "right on track" with its recent rise, as December is usually a strong month for the stock market. Currently, the leading German index has "only" gained one and a half percent this month. Starting from November's low of just under 23,000 points, the gain has grown to around six percent.

Now that the New York Dow Jones Industrial has already set its next record, attention in Germany is turning to the DAX's previous record high of 24,771 points. Molnar sees the last relevant hurdle on the way there in the 24,500-point range. The round mark of 25,000 points is then not far off.

According to Commerzbank, the Fed was recently the decisive price driver for three reasons: in addition to the interest rate cut, analyst Andreas Hürkamp pointed to the decision to purchase short-term bonds and an increased forecast for US economic growth. He expects further economic data in the coming week to confirm his optimistic view of the US economy.

Investors are eagerly awaiting Tuesday's US labor market report, which will include data on employment for October in addition to the report for November. This will further resolve the problem of important economic data having accumulated after weeks of government shutdown. The Fed is comparing inflation to the job market as a second criterion, and news on this is expected on Thursday for November.

The Fed found itself in a dilemma against the backdrop of job market and inflation influences and some missing data. Deka Bank chief economist Ulrich Kater spoke of a compromise that the Fed had recently had to make. At a time when there is a risk of inflation, partly due to US tariffs, the US labor market has recently shown signs of weakness. Kater believes that the Fed has ensured that market participants' confidence in its actions remains intact.

The Fed has already made its decision for December. However, Thursday will be an exciting day with the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England. No further interest rate cuts are expected from the ECB anytime soon.

Apart from expectations regarding monetary policy, attention continues to focus on the booming topic of AI. As reported by the Bloomberg news agency on Friday afternoon, citing people familiar with the matter, the software and hardware company Oracle has postponed completion dates for some of the data centers for AI model developer OpenAI from 2027 to 2028, mainly due to labor and material shortages.

The DAX subsequently slipped into negative territory in the wake of weak US stock markets and ended the day with a moderate decline. After the long rally of many AI stocks, this seems to have once again raised concerns about when companies will start making money from their AI businesses in view of scarce resources and thus potentially even higher investments. Such concerns had been weighing on the market from time to time recently.

Before investors slowly close their books for this year, the final chord before Christmas on Friday could once again be marked by the big expiry on the futures exchanges. Options on the futures exchanges expire on these days. Uncontrolled swings are not uncommon, as large market participants try to move prices in a direction that is advantageous for them.

As far as German companies are concerned, the figures presented by Nike and Fedex on Thursday after the US stock market closed could move the shares of German competitors such as Adidas, Puma, and DHL at the end of the week. In Germany, there are latecomers to the reporting season, such as Thyssenkrupp Nucera on Wednesday and Douglas on Thursday./tih/mis/jha/

--- By Timo Hausdorf, dpa-AFX ---