By Kirk Maltais
--Wheat for September delivery rose 0.5%, to $6.81 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday, after Monday's Crop Progress report showed the bad winter crop getting worse.
--Soybeans for August delivery fell 0.1%, to $12.10 1/4 a bushel.
--Corn for September delivery fell 0.2%, to $4.81 1/2 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Collapsing Condition: The USDA's Crop Progress report showing a 1 point decrease in the amount of wheat in good or excellent condition supported CBOT futures Tuesday. The USDA said in the report that only 27% of the U.S. winter crop is in good or excellent condition. Drought has been the key factor hurting the U.S. crop, which is why conditions are weak and the USDA reduced its outlook for total U.S. wheat production in its most recent WASDE report.
All Eyes on China: CBOT grain futures posted only minor moves, after all three row crops saw strong gains Monday. The sentiment among analysts and traders remains optimistic about China following through with new purchases of U.S. agricultural commodities. "China demand hopes add another layer of underlying support," said the Hightower Report in a note. The White House said China agreed to buy $17 billion of U.S. agricultural exports through 2028.
INSIGHT
Missing Confirmation: The White House's announcement about China buying $17 billion of U.S. agriculture made on Sunday stimulated trader optimism to start the week, but China has yet to officially confirm that this is the case--something on which some traders and analysts are focused. "China has yet to confirm this," said Commerzbank in a note. "The figure mentioned is said not to include China's purchase commitment, made in October 2025, to buy at least 25 million tons of soybeans per year from the U.S. until 2028."
Pace on Par: The USDA's Crop Progress report showed that, even with the weather issues seen in U.S. growing areas, planting of both corn and soybeans remains on par or ahead of last year's pace. The report said 76% of U.S. corn acres have been planted, which is the same as this time last year. Soybean planting is ahead of last year's pace, with 67% planted, up from 63%. Both of these are ahead of the five-year average, according to the USDA. But how much corn will actually be produced on these acres may still be below where the USDA has projected, says Michael Cordonnier of Soybean & Corn Advisor in a note--while more soybean acres may be planted.
Fueling the Fire: Average daily production of ethanol in the U.S. is expected to climb from last week, according to analysts surveyed by Dow Jones. They say production may rise back to over 1.1 million barrels a day, which before this year, was historically high and only occasionally breached. "Fundamentals are strong-- production operates near or at record levels," said Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group. "Exports continue setting new highs and serve as a vital demand outlet amid flat domestic gasoline consumption."
AHEAD
--The EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Update report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
--Deere & Co. will release its second quarter 2026 earnings report before the stock market opens Thursday.
--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
05-19-26 1503ET
