By Kirk Maltais
--Wheat for March delivery fell 1.8% to $5.39 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade Tuesday, reversing last week's short-covering push as the outlook for Russia's wheat crop grows.
--Corn for March delivery fell 1.2% to $4.26 1/2 a bushel.
--Soybeans for March delivery rose 0.2% to $11.34 3/4 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Healthier Forecast: Black Sea agricultural consultancy SovEcon raised its outlook for 2026/27 Russian wheat production, up 2.1 million metric tons to 85.9 million tons. Even though there's been reports of ice "crust" forming on some Russian wheat fields, overall weather in the country has been better than average, said the firm. "Soil moisture reserves were relatively high last autumn, and abundant snow cover is supporting favorable moisture availability at the start of the growing season," said SovEcon in the note. But the firm adds that the upcoming months still carry risk for the Russian crop, and could change the final tally.
On Sale: Farmers are increasingly selling old stock to make room for new crops later this year and to shore up their bottom lines, said Cory Bratland of AgMarket.net in a note. The flood of finished crops hitting elevators pressuring prices. This selling comes as many farmers remain far away from price levels that can support breaking even on planted acres this year - with Purdue University reporting last week that for farmers in Indiana, corn and soybean prices are more than a dollar per bushel off from where they need to be for farmers to just not lose money, nevermind make a profit.
Product Placement: CBOT soybean futures were able to stay positive Tuesday on strength in soy products, said Austin Schroeder of Price Futures Group in a note. This is even as production outlooks provided by the USDA show high figures, expected to equal or beat previous records in places like Brazil. But demand from soyoil for higher renewable fuel production, as well as the potential for China to buy more U.S. exports, appears to support this higher output.
INSIGHT
Soybeans Over Corn: U.S. farmers are expected to increase their soybean planting this spring, in lieu of more fertilizer-intensive corn acres. In a report, agricultural lender CoBank says that 86 million acres of soybeans are expected to be planted this spring, which would be up nearly 6% from last year. Corn acreage is expected to be reduced by nearly 5% versus last year, but at 94 million acres will continue to be high with the potential to challenge last year's production record year. But with the record 17 billion corn bushels produced last year, soybeans appear to be the better financial choice. "Farmers in the Midwest are carrying record levels of corn stocks and will be reluctant to follow with more corn acres this spring," said CoBank.
Major Move: Fund traders added a large amount of long positions in soybeans for the week ended Feb. 10, this while closing an equally large amount of short positions. Friday's Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC shows that managed money traders added just over 45,000 long contracts in soybeans, while cutting nearly 49,000 short contracts. This brings the net long among fund traders to just over 123,000 contracts, according to the CFTC. Further upside may be ahead in the coming days and weeks for soybean futures, said the Hightower Report in a note.
AHEAD
--Nutrien Ltd. will release its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report after the stock market closes Wednesday.
--Deere & Co. will release its first-quarter 2026 earnings report before the market opens Thursday.
--The USDA will host its 102nd annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in Crystal City, Va., with opening remarks starting at 10:15 a.m. eastern time Thursday.
--The EIA will release its Weekly Petroleum Status Update report at noon ET Thursday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
02-17-26 1509ET
