Last week encapsulated the tensions now dominating the markets: a lingering energy crisis, increasingly hawkish central banks, and an earnings season led by US Big Tech. Financial markets were somewhat nervous, weighed on by rising oil prices and the lack of significant progress in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz remains paralyzed by the Iranian and American blockade, while diplomacy is still at a standstill. Both sides appear to be playing for time to force concessions, meaning a continued heavy uncertainty over energy flows, logistics costs and inflationary expectations.

Central banks have responded with caution. The Fed, ECB, Bank of England and Bank of Japan all held interest rates unchanged, although their rhetoric more clearly integrated the risk of returning inflationary pressures. In the United States, Jerome Powell's final meeting as Fed Chair marked a turning point, featuring four dissenting votes, the removal of an accommodative bias from the statement, and an

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