Which sectors and companies will be disrupted by AGI?

By Guillaume Baud - AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is a term that is increasingly heard in technological and financial circles. But what does it really mean? This concept deserves the full attention of investors, as this technology is set to profoundly transform the economic dynamics and investment opportunities of tomorrow.

Also known as superintelligence, AGI represents the ultimate stage of artificial intelligence. In concrete terms, it is AI capable of thinking and performing any cognitive task that a human with a PhD could accomplish.

The date of AGI's emergence is a source of deep division amongst experts. Elon Musk believes that it could emerge within a year, while Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI, is betting on a ten-year horizon.

For investors, it is becoming crucial to identify which companies are exposed to this disruption and which could withstand it.

The most exposed companies and sectors

• Traditional software publishers are on the front line. Microsoft (MSFT) could see Office lose value if AGI generates customized solutions instantly. Elon Musk has stated that "OpenAI will devour Microsoft from the inside." Alphabet (GOOGL), Salesforce (CRM), and SAP face similar risks.
• Professional services are particularly vulnerable.Accenture (ACN), Capgemini and consulting firms could see their services automated. Research companies such as Gartner (IT) also risk major disruption.
• The financial intermediary sector is exposed. Robinhood (HOOD) and certain Bloomberg services could be bypassed by ultra-personalized analytics.

Resilient sectors and companies

• Physical infrastructure such as NextEra Energy (NEE) remains safe. AGI cannot physically build infrastructure.
• Real estate and commodities will remain essential. Prologis (PLD), Exxon Mobil (XOM): AGI cannot create warehouses or oil.
• Agri-food will remain essential. Nestlé, Coca-Cola(KO), Walmart (WMT), because humans will always need to eat.
• Semiconductor manufacturers such as NVIDIA (NVDA), TSMC (TSM), and ASML are the big winners. AGI will require even more computing power.
• Cloud infrastructure, such as Amazon Web Services, will thrive: AGI requires enormous storage and computing capacity.
• Entertainment companies, such as Walt Disney (DIS) and Netflix (NFLX) will retain their value thanks to their catalogs of irreplaceable intellectual property.

Conclusion for investors

The arrival of AGI represents a disruption comparable to that of the internet in the 1990s. Savvy investors should favor companies with irreplaceable physical assets or those that provide the infrastructure necessary for AGI. Conversely, those relying on information intermediation or standardized cognitive services face a major existential risk.