If adopted, this budget extension would bring defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by the end of the decade, up from approximately 2% currently. The annual budget would thus reach 76.3 billion euros in 2030, nearly double its 2017 level, bringing total defense expenditure to approximately 436 billion euros over the 2024-2030 period.

"Programming our defense model means making choices," Fabien Mandon, the Chief of the Defense Staff, reminded the Defense Committee this morning. The General indicated that this new funding envelope would notably allow the military to bolster its equipment, logistics, and critical capabilities, particularly at a time when American support for European defense is being questioned more than ever.

In concrete terms, "this is clearly not a modernization cycle. The budget is instead being redirected toward intensification and the strengthening of operational capacity," noted Saïma Hussain, defense analyst at AlphaValue, this morning.

Breaking down the figures, a total of some 26 billion euros over the 2024-2030 period is expected to be dedicated to the purchase of ammunition, representing an additional 8.5 billion euros.

Air defense and anti-drone systems should see their budget increase by 1.5 to 2 billion euros, while drone spending is expected to rise by 2 billion euros (reaching over 8 billion euros in total). Finally, Space and ISR (infrared satellites + ground radars) should benefit from a total budget of 10 billion euros.

AlphaValue believes that Thales is set to capitalize on this new strategy thanks to its strong presence in air defense, radars, sensors, and protection systems. This view is shared by Chloé Lemarie at Jefferies, who points out that nearly 20% of Thales's revenue is exposed to the state defense budget.

Safran should also benefit from its strong presence in modular air-to-ground weaponry (AASM), specifically guided bombs, for which volumes have more than tripled. AlphaValue highlights the additional growth potential of this technology through guidance and propulsion.

The MBDA ecosystem (via Airbus/BAE/Leonardo) is expected to profit from the general increase in missile volumes (Aster, MICA, SCALP).
Airbus could also benefit from new A400M orders (a figure of six units is occasionally mentioned) and possesses growth potential related to the space sector.

In contrast, no additional Rafale orders are expected to be booked by Dassault Aviation. However, Saïma Hussain reports that this outsized budget should allow for an acceleration of the development schedule for the Rafale F5 standard.