Why Relaxing Russia Sanctions Won't Ease Oil Prices Much -- Commodities Roundup

MARKET MOVEMENTS:

--Brent crude oil is down 2.1% to $98.31 a barrel.

--European benchmark gas is down 3.9% to 48.90 euros a megawatt-hour.

--Gold futures are flat at $5,125.30 a troy ounce.

--LME three-month copper futures are down 0.5% at $12,883.50 a metric ton.

TOP STORY:

Why Relaxing Russia Sanctions Won't Ease Oil Prices Much

News that the U.S. will temporarily let countries buy Russian oil already at sea hasn't lowered oil prices. Even removing sanctions altogether might make little difference.

The reason is that, despite the ban, Russian crude already finds its way to the market.

"Sanctions have not materially impacted Russian production, only the price and markets they sell to, so they possess little incremental supply," analysts at financial-services firm Siebert Williams Shank write.

OTHER STORIES:

India Asks Iran to Allow Tanker Armada Through Hormuz

India is in active talks with Iran to allow at least 23 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz with the first crossings expected by the weekend, two Indian government officials told The Wall Street Journal. The tankers, loaded with oil and liquefied-natural gas, have been stuck in the Persian Gulf since the American and Israeli attacks on Iran began.

India's External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has spoken twice on the phone with his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, and the Indian coast guard is telling tanker owners it will guarantee safe passage to India, these officials said.

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Wacker Chemie Raises Prices on Middle East Conflict

Wacker Chemie said it would raise its prices for the product range of its polymers division as a result of increased costs for raw materials stemming from the war in the Middle East.

The German chemical company on Friday said the conflict in the Middle East has led to disruptions in the global supply chains, leading to increased prices for oil, natural gas, raw materials and logistics.

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The Electric Grid Needs Huge Upgrades. No One Knows Who Will Pay for Them.

The U.S. power industry is embarking on an AI-driven expansion of the electric grid, a build-out that promises to be one of the most expensive since World War II.

Some of the costs are set to be shared between power-gobbling AI companies and consumers already bridling at utility bills.

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U.N. Body Fights for Relevance as It Struggles to Devise a Deep Sea Mining Code

?For most of Earth's history there has been no need to govern the ocean floor. Considered more inhospitable than the dark side of the moon, the deep seabed has been largely left to its own devices.

But, this is about to change. As the race for rare earths and critical minerals intensifies and underwater technology improves, the possibility of mining the ocean floor is fast becoming a probability. The question is: who's in charge?

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German Chemical Industry Warns of Supply-Chain Hit From Middle East War

Germany's chemical industry is experiencing early signs of supply-chain disruptions from the war in the Middle East, with risks spreading beyond oil and natural gas to other raw materials, the country's industry trade group said.

The business group, known as VCI, on Friday said the conflict in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are raising concerns about supply bottlenecks for raw materials such as ammonia and phosphate, helium, and sulfur.

MARKET TALKS:

Oil Slips But Set for Strong Weekly Gains as Supply Moves Seen as Temporary -- Market Talk

1141 GMT - Crude prices slip but remain on track for significant weekly gains, as the market views the IEA's oil reserve release and the U.S. temporary sanctions waiver on Russian oil as only short-term fixes. Brent crude falls 0.5% to $99.95 a barrel, while WTI is down 0.8% to $89.76 a barrel. "More sanctions lifting on Russian oil, this time floating barrels, will do very little, not least because India and China were already ramping imports and will not worry at all about U.S. licenses," Neil Crosby from Sparta Commodities says. "But talk of [the] Jones Act relief might lead one to think that more effective price controls like export bans or tax relief might be next." The act limits trade between U.S. ports to U.S.-flagged ships. ([e-mail])

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Gold Little Changed as Middle East War Clouds Rate Outlook -- Market Talk

1123 GMT - Gold prices are little changed in afternoon trading, with New York futures below $5,100 and poised for a weekly loss of more than 1%. "The gold price continues to fail to benefit from the geopolitical crisis," Barbara Lambrecht from Commerzbank says. With Brent crude above $100 a barrel, inflation risks are rising, clouding the outlook for interest-rate cuts in the U.S. "However, it is also likely that investors are trying to cover losses in other asset classes, as outflows from gold ETFs have resumed since the beginning of March." ([e-mail])

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Aluminum Still Headed for Weekly Gain on Signs of Asia Tightness -- Market Talk

1119 GMT - Aluminum prices fall, but are still headed for a weekly gain of nearly 1.5%. "The amount requested for withdrawal of the metal from LME warehouses rose this week to its highest level since spring 2024," Thu Lan Nguyen from Commerzbank says. "The requests were primarily directed at warehouses in Malaysia, which suggests that the supply situation is particularly tight in Asia." Prices retreated after Norsk Hydro said its Qatari aluminum smelter would continue production at a reduced level rather than fully shutting down following Iranian strikes. LME aluminum prices are down 1.5% to $3,481 a metric ton. ([e-mail])

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Palm Oil Ends Higher Amid Strength in Rival Oils -- Market Talk

1017 GMT - Palm oil ended higher in the Asian trading session. Prices were supported by stronger rival oil prices overnight, along with improving sentiment as the narrowing price gap between palm oil and gasoil enhances palm's appeal for biodiesel production, Kenanga Futures analysts say in a note. Optimism over stronger early-March export data provided further support, though gains may be capped by the prospect of profit-taking ahead of the weekend, they add. Kenanga sees the support for the May futures contract at 4,500 ringgit and resistance at 4,620 ringgit. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for May delivery rose 23 ringgit to 4,564 ringgit a ton. ([e-mail])

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Temporary Easing of Russian Oil Sanctions Unlikely to Ease Price Pressure -- Market Talk

0858 GMT - The temporary lifting of sanctions on Russian oil is unlikely to bring down oil prices, Phillip Nova analyst Priyanka Sachdeva says. While the move could ease some immediate supply tightness, that wouldn't necessarily bring prices down in a meaningful way, she says. Oil prices have surged because the disruption isn't just about the availability of barrels but also the cost of moving them. "Longer shipping routes, limited tanker availability, and significantly higher insurance costs are all adding hefty 'war-risk premiums' to physical crude cargoes," the analyst says. As long as the conflict persists and shipping routes remain vulnerable, oil prices will continue to carry a significant geopolitical premium. ([e-mail])

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London's Miners Fall as Precious Metal Prices Slide -- Market Talk

0839 GMT - London's miners fall in opening trade as precious metal prices decline. Industrial metals also come under pressure from supply concerns and economic uncertainty, ANZ analysts write. Higher oil prices triggered by the conflict in the Middle East are fueling inflation concerns and could see U.S. rates staying higher. Lower borrowing costs typically support non-yielding assets like gold. Investors are also flocking to the U.S. dollar, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for overseas buyers. Gold futures fall 0.9% to $5,080 a troy ounce, while silver drops 3.5% to $82.14 an ounce. Precious metal miner Hochschild Mining is down 5.7%, while peer Fresnillo falls 4%. Endeavour Mining falls nearly 3%. Diversified miner Anglo American falls 3%, while commodity giant Glencore dips 1.6%. ([e-mail])

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Lindt's 2026 Outlook Is Conservative, But Justified -- Market Talk

0832 GMT - Lindt's lower guidance for 2026 is conservative--albeit justified--given poor Christmas results and a potential drag on sales from the Middle East conflict, analysts at Bernstein write in a note. A weaker-than-expected Christmas period came as a surprise, because messaging in mid-January had been relatively optimistic, though there was weak scanner data, the analysts say. "This confidence appears to have been misplaced," they say. There will be a knock-on impact on volumes for the first half of 2026 as retailers adjust Easter orders due to weak Christmas results. Meanwhile, on the earnings call management said it prefers to over deliver and under promise, they add. Shares are down 0.7% at 114,600 Swiss francs. ([e-mail])

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European Energy Stocks Rise as Crude Tops $100 a Barrel -- Market Talk

0819 GMT - European energy stocks rise in opening trade as crude oil price tops $100 a barrel. In early trade, Brent rises 1.8% to $102.40 a barrel, while WTI is up 1.9% to $92.19. This is despite the U.S. allowing countries to purchase Russian oil already at sea in a bid to boost supplies and lower prices. In London, BP rises 1.6% and Shell trades 0.9% higher. France's TotalEnergies is up 0.9%. Spain's Repsol rises nearly 2%, with Italy's Eni up 1%. ([e-mail])

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Gold Poised for Weekly Loss on Stronger Dollar, Rising Oil Prices -- Market Talk

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03-13-26 0917ET