Why TotalEnergies is failing to capitalize on surging oil prices
Despite oil prices jumping by over 50% in just ten days, TotalEnergies shares remain roughly where they were at the end of February. This muted reaction is largely due to two primary factors.
The first reason is that the stock had already surged 37% between its January 7 low (€53.30) and its March 2 peak (€73). The group benefited from a significant upward revaluation even before the recent military strikes against Iran. Numerous analysts have raised their target prices for TotalEnergies in recent weeks, which helped sustain buying momentum.
The second, more pragmatic reason is that the French major is heavily exposed to the Middle East, specifically in areas bordering the conflict. Among European players, it actually holds the highest local production share at 35%, well ahead of Shell (20%), OMV (17%), and BP Plc (13%), according to data from Oddo BHF. Investors fear that production and exports could be impacted if the regional conflict persists.
While TotalEnergies is underperforming its sector average, the stock remains a relatively safe haven amid current market volatility. The share price is pretty much afloat this Monday, March 9, while the CAC 40 is down 2.2%. Over the past month, it is up 8%, while the Parisian index has lost 3.4% over the same period.
TotalEnergies SE is one of the leading worldwide oil groups. Net sales break down by activity as follows:
- refining and chemistry (43.3%): refining of petroleum products (operated, at the end of 2025, 14 refineries throughout the world) and manufacture of basic chemistry (olefins, aromatics, polyethylene, fertilizer, etc.) and of specialty chemistry (rubber, resins, adhesives, etc.). The group is also operating in trading and sea transport of crude oil and oil products;
- petroleum products distribution (39.1%): at the end of 2025 operated 12,775 service stations worldwide;
- electricity generation (9.7%): from combined cycle gas plants and renewable energies;
- gas production, trading, transport and distribution (5%): primarily liquefied natural gas (43.9 million tons sold in 2025), natural gas, biogas, hydrogen, liquefied petroleum gas, etc.;
- hydrocarbon operating and production (2.8%): 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent produced per day in 2025;
- other (0.1%).
Net sales are distributed geographically as follows: France (22.8%), Europe (45%), Africa (10%), North America (7.2%) and other (15%).
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