With the withdrawal of Antoni's nomination to head the BLS, Donald Trump finds the limits of his power

With the shutdown monopolizing attention and likely to lead to the closure of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the announcement of EJ Antoni's withdrawal from the nomination has gone somewhat unnoticed. However, it illustrates the limits of Donald Trump's power and should reassure investors about Jerome Powell's succession as Fed chair.

In early August, Donald Trump fired BLS Director Erika McEntarfer, accusing her of manipulating the figures in favor of the Democrats. In particular, he questioned downward revisions. However, revisions are a standard statistical process: as time goes by, more data is collected, which allows forecasts to be fine-tuned.

In reality, he was simply unhappy with the disappointing employment figures, which did not fit with his narrative, as he repeatedly claims that the US has never been better off than under his presidency and loves to wear his "Trump was right about everything" cap.

He immediately announced the appointment of EJ Antoni to replace her. This was a controversial appointment, as Antoni is the current chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, arguably the most influential conservative think tank in the US.

The Heritage Foundation is behind "Project 2025," a 900-page document often considered to be Donald Trump's roadmap for his term in office. One of the project's main aims is to transform the federal administration.

Congress has a say

With this appointment, economists feared that the statistical independence of the BLS would be called into question. However, it is essential that investors be able to trust official US statistics.

As with many agencies in the US, the appointment of a head depends on the president, but must then be confirmed by the Senate.

Donald Trump withdrew Antoni's nomination because he knew he would not get Senate support. The Republican majority is narrow (53-47) and several Republican lawmakers seemed reluctant to support the nomination.

What is interesting about this sequence of events is that Donald Trump has found a limit to his power, he who seemed to have all the levers at his disposal since his return to the White House: a totally loyal and prepared administration (unlike in his first term), a majority in Congress held with an iron fist, big bosses courting him, a conservative-majority Supreme Court...

Good news for the Fed

This is especially good news for the Fed, because it shows that the president cannot appoint just anyone, and that he must find candidates who are credible enough to win approval from Congress.

This issue is all the more acute when it comes to the Fed chair, the most important person in the world for investors. Jerome Powell's term expires in May 2026, and Donald Trump will have to choose his replacement in the coming months.

During his first term, two of Donald Trump's nominees for Fed governor positions ultimately withdrew. Both faced opposition from Republicans in the Senate.