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GOLD

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Gold's main bullish levers

02/27/2020 | 05:32am EDT

The environment has changed significantly in the marketplace. At the beginning of the month, we criticized the sporadic rise in geopolitical tensions, the associated uncertainty, the expansion of the coronavirus and the maintenance of accommodating monetary policies as the explosive cocktail to propel the price of the barbaric relic upwards. It is clear that these three factors were fully manifest during the month. On the political front, fighting in north-western Syria, opposing the latest pockets of jihadists, has become more intense and the regular armed conflict in Syria has become more intense. These clashes take a completely different turn, since they now oppose Turkey, supporting the Syrian rebels, and Russia, allied to the Bashar regime. The Syrian army's advance towards the main city of the region, Idlib, Turkey, which is fully invested militarily, has demanded American support through the sending of Patriot anti-aircraft batteries. This complex equation thus indirectly addresses long-standing resentments between NATO and Russia. Concerning the coronavirus, if the markets have shown a great resilience in the face of the crisis, the expansion of Covid-19 in China, the panic mode has been triggered in the face of the crisis, with the multiplication of outbreaks in Europe, Iran and South Korea. The de-coupling of stock market indices and the return of risk aversion has naturally benefited safe havens, including gold. Finally, on the monetary side, operators are expecting a firm response from central bankers to counter the economic slowdown. Many investors are expecting the Fed to lower rates in April. Accommodating monetary policies have a bright future ahead of them. The ratio has risen by more than 8% since the beginning of the year and by 25% on a rolling year basis. Graphically, there was nothing to detract from the strong underlying uptrend that has been in place since early 2020. Buyers are keeping their hand in and no major bearish alerts will take place as long as prices are above $1600 USD. The first major target is at the psychological threshold of USD 1,700 before the major weekly resistance test at USD 1,790 SOUTH, which passes through the 2012 highs.


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