The UBS Investment Bank analyst said that macroeconomic factors are the main drivers of the gold price, rather than geopolitical tensions. She pointed out that the expected deterioration in the US fiscal deficit is seen as positive for gold in the medium to long term, regardless of the outcome of the US elections.
Despite a recent increase in net long positions on the COMEX, he considers that the market could see some consolidation in the short term, but overall market positions are not excessive. The strategy of buying on pullbacks prevailed in 2024, with gold prices correcting briefly and superficially, supporting an uptrend.
The macroeconomic context, with falling real rates and an easing Fed policy, together with resilient physical demand and increased gold reserves by the official sector, continue to favour gold.
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