The general opolitical tensions that had animated the oil markets since mid-September are gradually dissipating, allowing the market to breathe despite headwinds on the fundamentals front.
OPEC has indeed once again lowered its prospects for growth in oil demand. These forecasts are cut by 600,000 barrels per day, bringing world demand to 103.9 million barrels per day (mbd) by 2023. In addition, the cartel expects that the American supply will remain robust and expects production to reach 16.9 mbd in 2024 (compared to 12 mbd this year).
In addition, operators have just learned of a major discovery in Iran, whose authorities announce that they have identified a deposit that could increase the country’s reserves by a third. Nevertheless, it should be recalled that Iran is subject to American sanctions and that Téherald extraction techniques do not currently make it possible to fully exploit this “super deposit”.
Technically, in daily data, the Brent evolves in the middle of its range bounded between 58.2 and 64.6 USD. Neutrality is therefore required, as evidenced by the flattening of daily moving averages. In this context, we will wait for an exit from this horizontal oscillation zone to take position in one direction or the other.