1051 GMT - Crude futures return to positive territory after opening the trading session lower as markets mull trade and tariff risks under Donald Trump's presidency. Brent crude is up 0.5% to $79.70 a barrel, while WTI rises 0.6% to $76.26 a barrel. Both benchmarks settled lower after Trump outlined plans to boost oil-and-gas production, but the focus has now turned to trade policy and its potential impact on crude balances. Prices are also supported by falling Russian oil exports due to U.S. sanctions, with daily flows down 9% last week and the four-week average close to a 16-month low, according to Bloomberg-compiled data. "The oil market has tightened this winter, aided by low crude oil inventories, increased heating demand, improved OPEC+ compliance, and more Russia sanctions," BofA strategist Francisco Blanch says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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Palm Oil Ends Lower Amid Tepid Demand -- Market Talk
1007 GMT - Palm oil closed lower amid tepid demand. Uncertainty over possible increases in biodiesel consumption weighed on the vegetable oil's prices, Hanhua Futures said in a research note. Meanwhile, after a surge in palm oil prices in 2024 due to supply concerns, prices have become less attractive compared with soybean oil, putting a toll on major producers' exports, it said. Palm oil prices' upward momentum could be limited in the near term due to soft consumption, it added. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for April delivery dropped 52 ringgit to 4,208 ringgit a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
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India Open to Buying More U.S. Energy; Expects Limited Oil-Market Volatility -- Market Talk
0924 GMT - India is open to buying more U.S. energy as President Trump seeks to "unleash" domestic energy production, A.S Sahney, chairman of IndianOil, says in an interview with Bloomberg at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. He expects new U.S. sanctions on Russia to remove around 2 million barrels of oil a day. However, there is capacity across the oil market to fill this gap, he says. Sahney says he isn't expecting volatility in the oil markets soon. Demand growth for gasoline in India isn't slowing but diesel growth is temporarily lower, he adds. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
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Gold Futures Rise to Near-Record Highs on Tariff Concerns -- Market Talk
0915 GMT - Gold futures rise on renewed tariff concerns, and sit close to their all-time high. Futures are up 0.3% at $2,767.20 a troy ounce, approaching its all-time record of $2,826.30 a troy ounce set in late October. Renewed tariff concerns--which have become an expected negotiation tool--have pushed gold prices to their highest levels since U.S. President Trump's victory in the November elections on safe-haven demand, says Pepperstone's Ahmad Assiri. Gold's strong upward momentum isn't random, but rooted in forward-looking expectations of escalating trade risks tied to tariffs, Assiri says in a note. The new administration hasn't yet discussed critical issues, amplifying market sensitivity to short-term issues, Assiri writes. Alongside safe-haven demand and risk-hedging, bullion's rise also coincides with a decline in the U.S. dollar index, Assiri adds. (joseph.hoppe@wsj.com)
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Europe's Gas Price Surge on U.S. LNG Export Worries -- Market Talk
0849 GMT - European natural-gas prices jump back to 50 euros a megawatt-hour, the highest level since the first trading day of the year as freezing weather in Texas threatens U.S. LNG exports. "The catalyst for the move appears to be an outage at the Freeport LNG export terminal in the U.S.," ING analysts say. Meanwhile, cold weather in Europe has exacerbated supply concerns. "Europe needs to pull in more LNG this winter with the loss of Russian pipeline flows through Ukraine, along with also stronger demand," the analysts say. "EU gas storage has now fallen to 59% and the region will need to try to make sure it stays above the European Commission's target of 50% full by February 1." The benchmark Dutch TTF contract currently trades 0.8% lower at 49.64 euros a megawatt-hour. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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Oil Slips As Market Mulls Trump's Energy Policy, Tariffs -- Market Talk
0840 GMT - Oil prices slip in early trade as markets digest U.S. President Trump's raft of energy policies and eye trade tariffs. Brent crude is down 0.2% at $79.14 a barrel, while WTI falls 0.3% to $75.59 a barrel. The president threatened to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico and said he was considering a 10% punitive duty on China in response to fentanyl flows from the country. "The oil market's attention is slowly turning away from U.S. sanctions against Russia towards President Trump's potential trade policy," ING analysts say. "Trade and tariff risks and the potential for retaliation are growing." Meanwhile, traders are keeping an eye on supply-side news, as a rare winter storm in the U.S. south threatens to disrupt oil production and Russian oil exports dropped significantly last week following the latest batch of U.S. sanctions. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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Trump's LNG Push Is Good News for Europe, EU Senior Official Says -- Market Talk
0836 GMT - U.S. President Trump's decision to ramp up production of liquefied natural gas is "certainly good news" for Europe, Valdis Dombrovskis, the European Commission vice president for the economy, tells the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Europe can still put more pressure on Russia by reducing LNG imports further, the Latvian politician says. More than half of the EU's LNG now comes from the U.S., he notes. Ukraine's Western allies should focus on Russia's sanction circumvention, he adds. (cristina.gallardo@wsj.com)
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Iron Ore Falls; Prices May Remain Volatile -- Market Talk
0241 GMT - Iron ore falls in early Asian trade and Baocheng Futures expects prices to remain volatile. China's commodity demand this year could be challenged by the extent of U.S. tariffs and subsequent policy response from Chinese policymakers, says Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar in a note. However, given that China's fiscal spending may look to offset any economic damage from U.S. tariffs, Dhar sees the possibility of a "flat to small decline" in China's steel demand and production. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is down 0.9% at CNY796.5 a ton.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
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BHP Dividend Hopes Soften as Debt Rises -- Market Talk
0238 GMT - Net debt of around US$12 billion will make it hard for miner BHP to give shareholders more than its 50% minimum payout this fiscal year, Macquarie analysts say in a note. They cut their FY 2025 dividend estimate by 13% to US$0.91/share. In a quarterly update, BHP estimated its net debt at Dec. 31 was US$11.5 billion-US$12.5 billion. It earlier reported net debt of US$9.12 billion at June 30. The analysts reckon BHP, which bid for Anglo American last year, will "remain patient" on M&A. They prefer the Australia-based miner over Anglo-Australian rival Rio Tinto on a 12-month horizon "but acknowledge risk to this view into the 1HFY25 result." Macquarie reiterates an outperform rating and target of A$42.00/share. BHP is down 1.5% at A$40.00. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
Write to Barcelona Editors at barcelonaeditors@dowjones.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-22-25 1205ET