OPEC Trims Demand Forecast for Fourth Straight -2-

0952 GMT - Agricultural commodity prices are mixed, with few clear directional signals for investors. Wheat prices are up 0.2% at $5.67 a bushel, while soybeans fall 0.7% to $10.15 a bushel. The dollar has risen sharply in the wake of Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election. A strong dollar is a real problem for agricultural markets, Peak Trading analysts say in a note. Crucial commodity currencies like the yuan look weak against the dollar, as do the Australian and Canadian dollars and the Brazilian real, Peak Trading says. This dampens demand for dollar-dominated commodities. On the other hand, U.S. stock markets are at record highs and forward-looking expectations for inflation are rising, which are bullish for agricultural futures, Peak Trading says. Corn gains 0.35% to $4.32 a bushel, while oats fall 0.4% to $3.45 a bushel. ([e-mail])

--

Metal Prices Slump on Stronger Dollar, Disappointing China Stimulus -- Market Talk

0930 GMT - Base metal prices slide on a stronger dollar. LME three-month copper falls 1.5% to $9,161.50 a metric ton, while LME three-month aluminum drops 0.7% to $2,553 a ton. Metal prices have primarily weakened on a stronger U.S. dollar and disappointing stimulus measures from China, says Sucden Financial's Daria Efanova. The U.S. dollar sharply gained after the victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. election. Dollar moves have been key to driving the narrative of the metals complex in the sessions since, Efanova says in a note. The dollar will remain the primary factor influencing metal prices this week, given the lack of focus paid to China's support, Efanova says. The greenback looks overbought at current levels and could weaken in the coming weeks, which should provide support for metal prices, Efanova adds. ([e-mail])

--

European Gas Prices Near Year-to-Date Highs on Stronger Demand -- Market Talk

0925 GMT - European natural-gas prices edge lower in early trade but are still hovering around this year's highs as cooler temperatures and softer wind drive demand. The benchmark Dutch TTF hit 44 euros a megawatt hour on Monday--the highest level year-to-date--as European gas inventories decline faster than usual. "Lower electricity output from renewables is forcing utilities to ramp up their gas-fired power generation," ANZ Research analysts say. "The drawdowns could accelerate as weather forecast suggest a cold snap is expected by the end of November." The market is also concerned about supply-side issues, as it is still unclear if Russian gas will be able to make its way to Europe and what Donald Trump's return to the White House will mean for the war in Ukraine. The TTF contract is currently down 0.6% at 43.45 euros a megawatt hour. ([e-mail])

--

Oil Steady Amid Demand Concerns, Stronger U.S. Dollar -- Market Talk

0849 GMT - Oil prices are broadly stable in early European trade after coming under further pressure in the previous session due to investor disappointment over China's stimulus plans and a stronger U.S. dollar. Brent crude and WTI are both up 0.1% at $71.93 and $68.14 a barrel, respectively. "USD strength--an ongoing theme since the U.S. election--has provided strong headwinds not just to the oil market but also to the broader commodities complex," ING's Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say in a note. Traders now await the release of monthly oil-market reports from OPEC and the IEA, as any further downgrades to demand-growth estimates could weigh on market sentiment. ([e-mail])

--

Gold Under Pressure From Multiple Fronts -- Market Talk

0811 GMT - Gold is under pressure on multiple fronts, with institutional selloffs pushing it down nearly 3% since Monday, says Dilin Wu at Pepperstone. "The trading narrative has shifted sharply from risk-off hedging to an 'America First' stance." The SPDR Gold Trust and other major institutions have been unloading holdings since November, while central banks have slowed gold purchases, the strategist says. That's making gold's near-term outlook seem bleak. If U.S. CPI and retail sales this week beat views, the USD Index could tighten the screws further, Wu adds. Trump's tapping of trade hawk Lighthizer has also fueled expectations of stricter tariffs, stronger USD and rising inflation that could make the Fed hesitant to cut rates, creating more headwinds for gold, Wu says. ([e-mail])

--

WTI Crude Oil Price Continues to Be Bearish, Chart Shows -- Market Talk

0543 GMT - WTI crude oil price continues to be bearish, based on the daily chart, says Matt Simpson, market analyst at Forex.com and City Index, in commentary. A "head and shoulders" formation has appeared on the daily chart, Simpson notes. Given the WTI price has been "grinding lower" since the April high, this formation can signal a bearish continuation pattern during downtrends, Simpson says. For now, WTI seems to be looking to break below the formation's neckline to confirm the bearishness, Simpson adds. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 0.3% lower at $67.84/bbl. ([e-mail])

--

Crude Palm Oil Prices May Stay Elevated in 1H 2025 -- Market Talk

0358 GMT - Crude palm oil prices may remain elevated in 1H 2025, CGS International analyst Jacquelyn Yow says in a note. Stronger biodiesel demand from Indonesia, slower palm oil production growth and tight supply in other veg oils are tailwinds for palm oil prices, she says. Speakers at the recent Indonesian Palm Oil Conference expect CPO prices to range between MYR4,500/ton-MYR5,000/ton in 1H 2025, she notes. Yow continues to favor upstream players with substantial Malaysian exposure, high leverage to CPO prices and strong production growth projected for 2024. CGS maintains a neutral rating on Malaysia's agribusiness sector, as downstream operations of integrated plantation companies still face challenges from high feedstock costs. Hap Seng Plantations, TA Ann and SD Guthrie are CGS's top picks. ([e-mail])

--

Iron Ore Futures Broadly Lower on Subdued Sentiment -- Market Talk

0237 GMT - Iron ore futures are broadly lower in early Asian trade amid subdued sentiment. A surging dollar after Trump's election win is denting investor appetite across the commodity markets, ANZ Research analysts say in a research note. A lack of further support for China's property market from Beijing is also weighing on the iron ore market, they say. Port holdings of iron ore in China have expanded for the past four weeks to their highest level since early September, raising concerns about weak demand, they add. The most-traded iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is down 0.3% at CNY761.5 a ton. ([e-mail])

Write to Barcelona Editors at [e-mail]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

11-12-24 0816ET