Economists Forecast Where Growth, Inflation and Interest Rates Are Headed

Economists Forecast Where Growth, Inflation and Interest Rates Are Headed By Hardika Singh

Forecasters have raised some of their expectations for the economy over the past few months. Meanwhile, the IMF says the U.S. and China should watch their debt levels. And bitcoin's halving will take place on April 19. Read on for this news and more.

Top News Where Are Growth, Inflation and Interest Rates Headed? We Asked the Economists

The Wall Street Journal's latest quarterly survey of business and academic economists shows forecasters ratcheting up their expectations for economic growth, inflation and the level of future interest rates. After looking at the charts, see if you can guess how economists answered two questions about the relationship between politics, the economy and Federal Reserve policy.

Hannon's Take Dead Set on Divergence

There was an hour of clarity Tuesday when policymakers made it clear that the central banks of the U.S. and Europe are to part ways. At the Economic Club of New York, the governor of France's central bank told his audience that the eurozone's key interest rate will be cut in June "barring major shocks or surprises."

A little further south and 45 minutes later, Fed Chair Jerome Powell in Washington, D.C., explained why the U.S. central bank won't be joining the European Central Bank as it embarks on the next stage of a journey that saw both deploy the largest and speediest tightening of policy in decades to counter a surge in inflation.

U.S. Economy IMF Warns Surge in U.S., China Debt Could Have 'Profound' Impact on Global Economy

The U.S. and Chinese governments should take action to lower future borrowing, as a surge in their debts threatens to have "profound" effects on the global economy and the interest rates paid by other countries, the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday.

Financial Regulation Bitcoin's Halving Is Coming. Miners Are Looking for New Ways to Make Money.

Companies that unlock new bitcoins are revamping their businesses to depend less on the cryptocurrency ahead of a supply contraction that will cut profits in half. The crypto industry is holding its breath for an event called the halving, an adjustment to the bitcoin blockchain that cuts in half the number of bitcoins that can be unlocked by miners.

Forward Guidance Thursday (all times ET)

8:30 a.m.: U.S. weekly jobless claims

9:05 a.m.: Fed's Bowman opening remarks at 2024 New York Fed Regional and Community Banking Conference

9:15 a.m.: New York Fed's Williams in moderated discussion at Semafor World Economy Summit

10 a.m.: U.S. existing home sales for March

11 a.m.: Atlanta Fed's Bostic at Prosperity Partnership Fort Lauderdale Meeting

2:30 p.m.: ECB's Schnabel speaks at Program on International Financial Systems symposium in Washington, D.C.

5:45 p.m: Atlanta Fed's Bostic speaks at the University of Miami Herbert Business School

Friday

10:15 a.m.: Bank of England's Ramsden speaks at Peterson Institute for International Economics

10:30 a.m.: Chicago Fed's Goolsbee in moderated Q&A at SABEW Annual Conference

Research Dollar Seen As Best Safe Haven

Long U.S. dollar is the best way to play the risk of higher yields, TS Lombard's Skylar Montgomery Koning and Andrea Cicione said in a report. They argued that tensions in the Middle East "are reminding markets that USD is the best safe haven." Meanwhile, monetary policy looks likely to remain more restrictive in the U.S. than in other developed economies, "with US vs G10 spread widening and considerable upward pressure on the dollar," they said. - Paulo Trevisani

Basis Points The Supreme Court made it easier Wednesday for workers to bring claims challenging job transfers as discriminatory, ruling that allegations of illegal treatment can be valid even if an employee's pay or rank don't change. - Jan Wolfe and Jess Bravin Many Americans who inherited retirement accounts since 2020 won't be required to start pulling money out this year after the Internal Revenue Service said it was further postponing enforcement of a law passed in 2019. - Ashlea Ebeling The Bank of Japan should proceed carefully with further monetary policy changes , as domestic inflation still isn't very strong, board member Asahi Noguchi said. - Megumi Fujikawa China's central bank reiterated its commitment to a stable yuan , joining the chorus of Asian officials concerned about weakening regional currencies. - Fabiana Negrin Ochoa China's youth unemployment rate remained steady in March , a tentative sign the world's second-largest economy could be stabilizing. Australia's unemployment rate edged up in March , but a jump in the number of people in full-time work will continue to feed risk that the country's central bank may sit this year out before cutting interest rates. - David Winning Registrations of new cars in the European Union slipped further than they have in more than a year in March, upset by the Easter holiday and in line with a trend of softening demand. - David Sachs About Us

WSJ Pro Central Banking brings you central banking news, analysis and insights from WSJ's global team of reporters and editors. This newsletter was compiled by markets reporter Hardika Singh in New York. Send your tips, suggestions and feedback to [[e-mail]].

This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

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04-18-24 0716ET