The Euro is completely unaffected by the Barnier government's "censure", and was even the star of the day with a sustained advance against all currencies, and the Dollar in particular (+0.55% to 1.0570).
Clearly, with a 0.5% rebound on Thursday, it's no exaggeration to talk of relief for the Euro and our Treasury bonds, which are enjoying a somewhat unexpected upturn, not only in relation to the 'pre-censure' period, but also in 'relative' terms to Bunds and other Euro-denominated interest-rate instruments.
If the overthrow of the government has the effect of opening up a new political period of uncertainty, analysts hope that this could prompt the ECB to accelerate its rate easing cycle (not to mention the supposed support for our OATs in the event of 'tensions').
And if 'political chaos' was no longer the concern of the moment, weak growth in Europe remains a real problem.
The Dollar-Index fell by 0.45% on Thursday, to 105.85, with the greenback dropping 0.5% against the Swiss franc, but holding its own against the yen (-0.25%) and the yuan (-0.05% to 7.2405).

In the United States, Jerome Powell expressed confidence in the outlook for growth in 2025... and said he had underestimated the robustness of the US economy in September, when the FED adopted a -50Pt rate cut.
Despite the FED's mention of a "cautious rate cut" on Wednesday, investors are still expecting a further -25Pt easing on December 18, with the consensus at 75%.

And as luck would have it, the US trade deficit began to contract sharply: by -12% to $73.8 bn in October, compared with $83.8 bn the previous month (according to the Commerce Department).

This month-on-month decline does not reflect a 'Trump effect' (there is a 2-month lag upstream), but is the result of a 4% contraction in US imports of goods and services, thus outstripping a 1.6% drop in exports.
On the eve of the publication of the NFP, the Labor Department announced that 224.000 new jobless claims in the US last week, up 9,000 on the previous week.

The four-week moving average - more representative of the underlying trend - stood at 218,250 for the week to November 30, up 750 on the previous week.

Finally, on the eve of the publication of the 'NFP', the number of people receiving regular benefits fell by 25,000 to 1,871,000 during the week of November 23, the most recent period available for this statistic.

Copyright (c) 2024 CercleFinance.com. All rights reserved.