Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the coming week starting December 2.
U.S. economic data return back into focus as investors look for signs as to whether the world's largest economy remains relatively strong. Key jobs data for November and ISM surveys on manufacturing and services activity will be particularly closely watched.
In Asia, focus will center on purchasing managers' surveys and inflation data across the region amid concerns about how U.S. policy might impact inflation trends and supply chains.
U.S.
Further signs that the economy is performing well and better than economies elsewhere could diminish prospects of U.S. interest-rate cuts in the coming months. This could lift the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields.
Money markets are pricing in a 65% chance of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December, according to LSEG data. This could increase if upcoming data are weak, or decrease if data are strong.
The big focus will be on the monthly jobs report for November on Friday, Dec. 6.
"The U.S. jobs report on Friday will be the key data release next week ahead of the Fed's next decision on December 18," Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note.
However, analysts warn the figures are likely to be distorted by the impact of hurricanes and strikes prior to November as people return to work.
This could place extra emphasis on other jobs indicators, including JOLTS job openings data for October on Tuesday, ADP private payrolls for November on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.
ISM data on manufacturing activity in November on Monday and on services activity on Wednesday will be closely monitored for an indication of the health of the U.S. economy, particularly after very weak recent purchasing managers' surveys in the eurozone. October factory orders are due Wednesday and trade data for October is due Thursday.
Investors will keep a close eye out for any further comments from President-elect Donald Trump on the possibility of trade tariffs and other policy plans.
CANADA
Canadian jobs data for November due Friday will be in focus after recent weak third-quarter gross domestic product data suggested that a second straight large interest-rate cut of 50 basis points by the Bank of Canada remains a possibility.
Trade data for October are also due Thursday.
EUROZONE
The flow of data will slow down in the eurozone at the start of December.
Final manufacturing purchasing managers data on Monday and services PMI figures on Wednesday will be watched for any revisions from the recent dismal flash estimate data.
German manufacturing orders for October on Thursday and industrial production on Friday are expected to show mixed results, albeit still pointing to a worryingly weak trend, HSBC analysts said in a note.
"German industry remains under significant pressure to adapt to changing structural conditions," they said.
French industrial production figures for October are due Thursday.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will appear at the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs on Wednesday, with potential guidance on the December 12 rate-setting meeting. Most investors anticipate another 25 basis-point rate cut at this meeting, although a larger half-point reduction is possible.
Eurozone October producer price data are scheduled Wednesday. Final eurozone third-quarter GDP data are due Friday, Dec. 6.
Germany will offer 4.5 billion euros in December 2026 Schatz on Tuesday and 3.5 billion euros in August 2034 Bund on Wednesday. Spain and France will hold auctions on Thursday.
U.K.
In a quiet week for U.K. events, final U.K. purchasing managers' data for November on manufacturing activity will be released Monday, and the services sector counterpart will be released on Wednesday.
Nationwide's latest house price index for November is due Monday.
The U.K. plans to auction the July 2054 gilt on Tuesday and the October 2031 gilt on Wednesday.
"There are relatively few key U.K. events next week and U.K. markets are likely to follow any lead provided by the U.S.," said Investec economist Philip Shaw in a note.
POLAND
Poland's central bank announces a decision Wednesday, where interest rates are expected to be left on hold at 5.75%. Rate cuts aren't expected until next year due to elevated inflation in Poland.
ING economist Adam Antoniak said a first rate cut is expected in the second quarter of next year once policymakers are convinced that the higher inflation trend has reversed and it is set to "head towards the central bank's target in a systematic and sustainable manner."
SWITZERLAND
Swiss inflation figures for November are due Tuesday.
SCANDINAVIA
Denmark, Sweden and Norway will hold bond auctions on Wednesday.
AUSTRALIA
In Australia, bond traders will turn their attention to the release of retail sales data for October on Monday, followed by third-quarter economic growth numbers on Wednesday.
Consumers are under close scrutiny, with any resurgence in spending likely to further dampen expectations of a near-term interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia.
The RBA is expecting consumers to start spending a little more over the coming months, thanks in part to income tax cuts delivered mid-year and a solid job market.
But anything excessive could prompt concerns at the central bank that demand in the economy remains frothy.
The economic growth data on Wednesday are expected to show the economy grew slightly faster in than prior quarters, pulling it away from a recession. Still, growth will be weak overall.
Traders will also be watching the country's major banks, with three of the four now abandoning forecasts that the RBA could cut in February, and instead expecting a delay until May.
Only the Commonwealth Bank of Australia remains locked on a February cut, and if it too buckles next week and moves to May, bond yields could reflect the lost optimism.
JAPAN
Bank of Japan policy board member Toyoaki Nakamura will speak to business leaders in Hiroshima on Thursday.
If a dovish board member like him shows a "positive attitude" toward a December rate increase, that would send a strong signal to markets, Citi Research's Katsuhiko Aiba said in a note. However, that seems unlikely ahead of U.S. non-farm payrolls data due Friday, Dec. 6, the economist said.
The Ministry of Finance is scheduled to auction 2.6 trillion yen of 10-year Japanese government bonds on Tuesday and 900 billion yen of 30-year sovereign debt on Thursday. The 30-year JGBs to be issued in December will be a reopening of the October 2024 issue, the ministry said.
Household spending data for October due on Friday, Dec. 6 could provide hints about the strength of consumer demand. Economists polled by data provider Quick expect household spending to have declined 2.6% from a year earlier. Economists say warm autumn weather has likely weighed on sales of colder-climate clothing.
INDIA
India's central bank announces its rate decision on Friday, Dec. 6, which comes as a recent rise in the country's inflation has many economists expecting a hold.
Inflation hit the Reserve Bank of India's tolerance limit in October, ING economists said, backing the case for policy settings to stay on hold. The RBI has been keeping a wary eye on price pressures, and is one of the few central banks in the region that has yet to start its easing cycle.
Nomura economists think that cycle is unlikely to start before next year.
"Governor Das's commentary on the need to ensure a durable alignment of inflation to the 4% target and the absence of any credible growth sacrifice in doing so has pushed out policy easing expectations," they said.
Hotter-than-expected CPI prints over the past few months will be enough to convince policymakers that conditions are not yet ripe for cuts, said Shilan Shah, economist at Capital Economics.
CHINA
Another quiet data week awaits in China, with private gauges of factory and service-sector activity the most eye-catching releases on the calendar.
Economists will be watching to see if the Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index continues to signal improvement in sector activity in November. That could suggest that Beijing's stimulus is having more of an effect. The print will also be looked at for signs that manufacturers are growing more concerned about the risk posed by tariffs, especially after president-elect Trump's pledge to impose additional levies on Chinese goods.
There will also be hope that the Caixin services sector reading will again impress, after the prior month's strong showing helped boost Chinese equities.
While there has been disappointment about a lack of stimulus directed more squarely at reviving consumer demand and addressing other structural issues, if the Caixin PMIs point in the same direction as their official counterparts, due on Saturday, Nov. 30, that could firm views that green shoots are indeed appearing in the Chinese economy.
SOUTH KOREA
South Korea reports trade figures on Sunday that are likely to show lackluster exports growth in November.
Outbound shipments are forecast to have risen 4.4% from a year earlier, following a 4.6% jump in October, according to the median forecast of 11 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Imports were likely up 1.5% from a year earlier after October's 1.7% rise, with the trade surplus expected to have widened to $5.20 billion from the prior month's revised $3.15 billion.
Computer chips and vessels likely led the export growth, while shipments of cars, petroleum products and home appliances likely fell in November, ING economist Min Joo Kang said.
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11-29-24 1133ET
